Pick'em Mode

Week 18
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
102
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
75.0%
Percentage
10-6
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
LAC LAC
@
DEN DEN *
2026-01-04 16:25 Favorite
LAC -14.5
Lock
Correct
+16 pts
3 - 19
15
pts
ARI ARI
@
LA LA *
2026-01-04 16:25 Favorite
ARI -14.5
Lock
Correct
+15 pts
20 - 37
14
pts
MIA MIA
@
NE NE *
2026-01-04 16:25 Favorite
MIA -14.0
Lock
Correct
+14 pts
10 - 38
13
pts
NYJ NYJ
@
BUF BUF *
2026-01-04 16:25 Favorite
NYJ -12.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+13 pts
8 - 35
12
pts
TEN TEN
@
JAX JAX *
2026-01-04 13:00 Favorite
TEN -12.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+12 pts
7 - 41
11
pts
GB GB
@
MIN MIN *
2026-01-04 13:00 Favorite
GB -12.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+11 pts
3 - 16
10
pts
IND IND
@
HOU HOU *
2026-01-04 13:00 Favorite
IND -9.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+10 pts
30 - 38
9
pts
CLE CLE
@
CIN CIN *
2026-01-04 13:00 Favorite
CLE -9.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 18
8
pts
BAL BAL *
@
PIT PIT
2026-01-04 20:20 Favorite
PIT -4.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 26
7
pts
NO NO
@
ATL ATL *
2026-01-04 13:00 Favorite
NO -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+7 pts
17 - 19
6
pts
KC KC *
@
LV LV
2026-01-04 16:25 Favorite
LV -3.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
12 - 14
5
pts
DET DET
@
CHI CHI *
2026-01-04 16:25 Favorite
DET -3.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 16
4
pts
WAS WAS
@
PHI PHI *
2026-01-04 16:25 Favorite
WAS -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 17
3
pts
CAR CAR
@
TB TB *
2026-01-03 16:30 Favorite
CAR -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+3 pts
14 - 16
2
pts
DAL DAL *
@
NYG NYG
2026-01-04 13:00 Favorite
NYG -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
17 - 34
1
pts
SEA SEA *
@
SF SF
2026-01-03 20:00 Model
SF -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+1 pts
13 - 3

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.