Pick'em Mode

Week 19
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
15
Points Earned
21
Points Possible
71.4%
Percentage
4-2
Record
0
Pending
2025 Season
← Week 18 Week 19 Week 20 →
Full Predictions
6
pts
LA LA *
@
CAR CAR
2026-01-10 16:30 Favorite
CAR -10.0
Strong favorite
Correct
+6 pts
34 - 31
5
pts
SF SF
@
PHI PHI *
2026-01-11 16:30 Favorite
SF -6.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 19
4
pts
LAC LAC
@
NE NE *
2026-01-11 20:00 Favorite
LAC -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
3 - 16
3
pts
HOU HOU *
@
PIT PIT
2026-01-12 20:00 Favorite
PIT -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+3 pts
30 - 6
2
pts
GB GB
@
CHI CHI *
2026-01-10 20:00 Model
CHI -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+2 pts
27 - 31
1
pts
BUF BUF
@
JAX JAX *
2026-01-11 13:00 Model
BUF -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 24

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-6 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 6 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.