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Week 10 Predictions

NFL 2025 Season

This Week
14
Games
0
Live
14
Final
11-3
ML Record
+50.0%
ML ROI
92/105
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date 149 total predictions
102-47
ML (68.5%)
-0.5%
ML ROI
84-64-1
Spread
+8.0%
Spread ROI
79-70
Totals
+1.0%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
High Confidence Strategy (65%+ ML confidence) OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023) *ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons. Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing. CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023: 61.3% (73-46, +17.1% ROI) CI: 52-70%
2024: 69.7% (83-36, +33.2% ROI) CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set. Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2025 Season (Live Tracking)
49-15
Filtered ML
+4.9%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
10
8:15 PM ET
Final
LV
(2-6)
@
DEN
(7-2)
7 - 10
Final Score
Winner
Home 77% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 42.5 (40.2) 70% +24.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 41.6 vs 17 (24.6pt diff)
13
9:30 AM ET
Final
ATL
(3-5)
@
IND
(7-2)
25 - 31
Final Score
Winner
Home 86% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 48.5 (53.0) 70% +5.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 50.2 vs 56 (5.8pt diff)
3
1:00 PM ET
Final
NO
(1-8)
@
CAR
(5-4)
17 - 7
Final Score
Winner
Home 56% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 38.5 (44.8) 70% +12.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 36.0 vs 24 (12.0pt diff)
7
1:00 PM ET
Final
NYG
(2-7)
@
CHI
(5-3)
20 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Home 74% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 45.5 (44.0) 70% +0.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 43.2 vs 44 (0.8pt diff)
6
1:00 PM ET
Final
JAX
(5-3)
@
HOU
(3-5)
29 - 36
Final Score
Winner
Away 67% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 37.5 (33.4) 70% +30.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 34.8 vs 65 (30.2pt diff)
2
1:00 PM ET
Final
BUF
(6-2)
@
MIA
(2-7)
13 - 30
Final Score
Winner
Away 54% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 50.5 (48.0) 70% +6.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 49.4 vs 43 (6.4pt diff)
11
1:00 PM ET
Final
BAL
(3-5)
@
MIN
(4-4)
27 - 19
Final Score
Winner
Away 80% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 48.5 (43.3) 70% +4.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 50.6 vs 46 (4.6pt diff)
1
1:00 PM ET
Final
CLE
(2-6)
@
NYJ
(1-7)
20 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Home 51% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 37.5 (36.3) 70% +11.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 35.7 vs 47 (11.3pt diff)
8
1:00 PM ET
Final
NE
(7-2)
@
TB
(6-2)
28 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Home 75% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 48.5 (38.7) 70% +0.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 51.3 vs 51 (0.3pt diff)
14
4:05 PM ET
Final
ARI
(3-5)
@
SEA
(6-2)
22 - 44
Final Score
Winner
Home 88% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 44.5 (45.4) 70% +23.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 42.8 vs 66 (23.2pt diff)
5
4:25 PM ET
Final
LA
(6-2)
@
SF
(6-3)
42 - 26
Final Score
Winner
Away 62% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 49.5 (43.6) 70% +21.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.8 vs 68 (21.2pt diff)
12
4:25 PM ET
Final
DET
(5-3)
@
WAS
(3-6)
44 - 22
Final Score
Winner
Away 81% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 49.5 (44.5) 70% +15.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 50.7 vs 66 (15.3pt diff)
9
8:20 PM ET
Final
PIT
(5-3)
@
LAC
(6-3)
10 - 25
Final Score
Winner
Home 76% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 45.5 (43.2) 70% +9.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 44.1 vs 35 (9.1pt diff)
4
8:15 PM ET
Final
PHI
(6-2)
@
GB
(5-3)
10 - 7
Final Score
Winner
Home 61% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 45.5 (42.5) 70% +26.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 43.2 vs 17 (26.2pt diff)
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