Pick'em Mode

Week 11
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
83
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
79.0%
Percentage
10-4
Record
0
Pending
14
pts
JAX JAX
@
DET DET *
2024-11-17 13:00 Favorite
JAX -14.0
Lock
Correct
+14 pts
6 - 52
13
pts
LV LV
@
MIA MIA *
2024-11-17 13:00 Favorite
LV -8.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+13 pts
19 - 34
12
pts
HOU HOU *
@
DAL DAL
2024-11-18 20:15 Favorite
DAL -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+12 pts
34 - 10
11
pts
MIN MIN *
@
TEN TEN
2024-11-17 13:00 Favorite
TEN -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
23 - 13
10
pts
GB GB *
@
CHI CHI
2024-11-17 13:00 Favorite
CHI -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
20 - 19
9
pts
SEA SEA
@
SF SF *
2024-11-17 16:05 Favorite
SEA -6.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 17
8
pts
WAS WAS
@
PHI PHI *
2024-11-14 20:15 Favorite
WAS -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+8 pts
18 - 26
7
pts
IND IND
@
NYJ NYJ *
2024-11-17 13:00 Favorite
IND -4.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 27
6
pts
LA LA *
@
NE NE
2024-11-17 13:00 Favorite
NE -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+6 pts
28 - 22
5
pts
BAL BAL *
@
PIT PIT
2024-11-17 13:00 Favorite
PIT -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 18
4
pts
KC KC
@
BUF BUF *
2024-11-17 16:25 Model
KC -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
21 - 30
3
pts
ATL ATL
@
DEN DEN *
2024-11-17 16:05 Model
ATL -2.0
Toss-up
Correct
+3 pts
6 - 38
2
pts
CLE CLE
@
NO NO *
2024-11-17 13:00 Model
NO -1.0
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
14 - 35
1
pts
CIN CIN *
@
LAC LAC
2024-11-17 20:20 Model
CIN -1.0
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 34

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 14 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.