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Week 11 Predictions

NFL 2024 Season

This Week
14
Games
0
Live
14
Final
10-4
ML Record
+36.4%
ML ROI
73/105
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date 166 total predictions
105-61
ML (63.3%)
-0.8%
ML ROI
94-72
Spread
+8.5%
Spread ROI
91-73-2
Totals
+5.9%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
High Confidence Strategy (65%+ ML confidence) OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023) *ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons. Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing. CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023: 61.3% (73-46, +17.1% ROI) CI: 52-70%
2024: 69.7% (83-36, +33.2% ROI) CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set. Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2024 Season (Live Tracking)
48-14
Filtered ML
+10.1%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
11
8:15 PM ET
Final
WAS
(7-3)
@
PHI
(7-2)
18 - 26
Final Score
Winner
Home 77% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 49.5 (54.2) 70% +3.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 47.7 vs 44 (3.7pt diff)
9
1:00 PM ET
Final
GB
(6-3)
@
CHI
(4-5)
20 - 19
Final Score
Winner
Away 76% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 41.0 (45.5) 70% +1.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 40.9 vs 39 (1.9pt diff)
14
1:00 PM ET
Final
JAX
(2-8)
@
DET
(8-1)
6 - 52
Final Score
Winner
Home 98% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 47.5 (56.4) 70% +11.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.3 vs 58 (11.7pt diff)
13
1:00 PM ET
Final
LV
(2-7)
@
MIA
(3-6)
19 - 34
Final Score
Winner
Home 86% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 43.5 (46.3) 70% +9.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 43.3 vs 53 (9.7pt diff)
10
1:00 PM ET
Final
LA
(4-5)
@
NE
(3-7)
28 - 22
Final Score
Winner
Away 76% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 42.5 (39.6) 70% +8.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 41.7 vs 50 (8.3pt diff)
4
1:00 PM ET
Final
CLE
(2-7)
@
NO
(3-7)
14 - 35
Final Score
Winner
Home 58% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 44.0 (40.7) 70% +4.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 44.1 vs 49 (4.9pt diff)
7
1:00 PM ET
Final
IND
(4-6)
@
NYJ
(3-7)
28 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Home 70% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 43.0 (44.6) 70% +9.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 45.5 vs 55 (9.5pt diff)
12
1:00 PM ET
Final
BAL
(7-3)
@
PIT
(7-2)
16 - 18
Final Score
Winner
Away 78% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 48.0 (46.4) 70% +14.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 48.6 vs 34 (14.6pt diff)
3
1:00 PM ET
Final
MIN
(7-2)
@
TEN
(2-7)
23 - 13
Final Score
Winner
Away 57% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 40.0 (40.7) 70% +2.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 38.9 vs 36 (2.9pt diff)
1
4:05 PM ET
Final
ATL
(6-4)
@
DEN
(5-5)
6 - 38
Final Score
Winner
Away 51% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 44.5 (44.8) 70% +1.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 42.7 vs 44 (1.3pt diff)
8
4:05 PM ET
Final
SEA
(4-5)
@
SF
(5-4)
20 - 17
Final Score
Winner
Home 74% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 49.0 (56.2) 70% +10.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 47.3 vs 37 (10.3pt diff)
6
4:25 PM ET
Final
KC
(9-0)
@
BUF
(8-2)
21 - 30
Final Score
Winner
Home 68% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 46.5 (54.0) 70% +6.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 44.7 vs 51 (6.3pt diff)
5
8:20 PM ET
Final
CIN
(4-6)
@
LAC
(6-3)
27 - 34
Final Score
Winner
Away 62% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 48.0 (44.9) 70% +15.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 45.5 vs 61 (15.5pt diff)
2
8:15 PM ET
Final
HOU
(6-4)
@
DAL
(3-6)
34 - 10
Final Score
Winner
Away 52% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 41.5 (39.8) 70% +2.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 41.1 vs 44 (2.9pt diff)
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