Pick'em Mode

Week 20
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
7
Points Earned
10
Points Possible
70.0%
Percentage
3-1
Record
0
Pending
2024 Season
← Week 19 Week 20 Week 21 →
Full Predictions
4
pts
HOU HOU
@
KC KC *
2025-01-18 16:30 Favorite
HOU -9.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+4 pts
14 - 23
3
pts
WAS WAS
@
DET DET *
2025-01-18 20:00 Favorite
WAS -8.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
45 - 31
2
pts
LA LA
@
PHI PHI *
2025-01-19 15:00 Favorite
LA -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+2 pts
22 - 28
1
pts
BAL BAL
@
BUF BUF *
2025-01-19 18:30 Model
BUF -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
25 - 27

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-4 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 4 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.