Pick'em Mode

Week 21
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
3
Points Earned
3
Points Possible
100.0%
Percentage
2-0
Record
0
Pending
2024 Season
← Week 20 Week 21 Week 22 →
Full Predictions
2
pts
WAS WAS
@
PHI PHI *
2025-01-26 15:00 Favorite
WAS -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+2 pts
23 - 55
1
pts
BUF BUF
@
KC KC *
2025-01-26 18:30 Model
BUF -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
29 - 32

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-2 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 2 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.