Pick'em Mode
Week 5Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
72
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
68.6%
Percentage
10-4
Record
0
Pending
14
pts
ARI
SF *
ARI -7.0
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 23
13
pts
NYG
SEA *
NYG -7.0
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
29 - 20
12
pts
NO
KC *
NO -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
13 - 26
11
pts
CAR
CHI *
CAR -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
10 - 36
10
pts
IND
JAX *
IND -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+10 pts
34 - 37
9
pts
CLE
WAS *
CLE -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+9 pts
13 - 34
8
pts
LV
DEN *
LV -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+8 pts
18 - 34
7
pts
GB *
LA
LA -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
24 - 19
6
pts
TB
ATL *
TB -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
30 - 36
5
pts
NYJ
MIN *
NYJ -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
17 - 23
4
pts
DAL
PIT *
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 17
3
pts
BAL *
CIN
CIN -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+3 pts
41 - 38
2
pts
MIA
NE *
NE -2.0
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 10
1
pts
BUF
HOU *
BUF -1.0
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
20 - 23
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.