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Week 5 Predictions

NFL 2024 Season

This Week
14
Games
0
Live
14
Final
10-4
ML Record
+36.4%
ML ROI
66/105
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date 78 total predictions
48-30
ML (61.5%)
-6.7%
ML ROI
49-29
Spread
+19.8%
Spread ROI
43-35
Totals
+5.1%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
High Confidence Strategy (65%+ ML confidence) OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023) *ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons. Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing. CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023: 61.3% (73-46, +17.1% ROI) CI: 52-70%
2024: 69.7% (83-36, +33.2% ROI) CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set. Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2024 Season (Live Tracking)
19-10
Filtered ML
-6.9%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
8
8:15 PM ET
Final
TB
(3-1)
@
ATL
(2-2)
30 - 36
Final Score
Winner
Away 66% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 44.0 (44.3) 70% +22.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 44.0 vs 66 (22.0pt diff)
7
9:30 AM ET
Final
NYJ
(2-2)
@
MIN
(4-0)
17 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Home 66% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 42.0 (43.6) 70% +2.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 42.2 vs 40 (2.2pt diff)
9
1:00 PM ET
Final
CAR
(1-3)
@
CHI
(2-2)
10 - 36
Final Score
Winner
Home 66% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 40.0 (42.7) 70% +5.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 41.0 vs 46 (5.0pt diff)
1
1:00 PM ET
Final
BAL
(2-2)
@
CIN
(1-3)
41 - 38
Final Score
Winner
Home 51% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 48.5 (35.1) 70% +32.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.2 vs 79 (32.8pt diff)
6
1:00 PM ET
Final
BUF
(3-1)
@
HOU
(3-1)
20 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Away 65% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 48.0 (43.4) 70% +5.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 48.2 vs 43 (5.2pt diff)
12
1:00 PM ET
Final
IND
(2-2)
@
JAX
(0-4)
34 - 37
Final Score
Winner
Home 75% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 45.0 (41.1) 70% +24.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.1 vs 71 (24.9pt diff)
10
1:00 PM ET
Final
MIA
(1-3)
@
NE
(1-3)
15 - 10
Final Score
Winner
Away 67% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 37.0 (31.0) 70% +13.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 38.2 vs 25 (13.2pt diff)
13
1:00 PM ET
Final
CLE
(1-3)
@
WAS
(3-1)
13 - 34
Final Score
Winner
Home 78% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 44.0 (41.4) 70% +3.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 43.5 vs 47 (3.5pt diff)
2
4:05 PM ET
Final
LV
(2-2)
@
DEN
(2-2)
18 - 34
Final Score
Winner
Home 52% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 36.0 (30.7) 70% +17.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 34.9 vs 52 (17.1pt diff)
4
4:05 PM ET
Final
ARI
(1-3)
@
SF
(2-2)
24 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Home 61% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 48.5 (51.5) 70% +0.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 47.9 vs 47 (0.9pt diff)
5
4:25 PM ET
Final
GB
(2-2)
@
LA
(1-3)
24 - 19
Final Score
Winner
Away 65% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 49.5 (37.7) 70% +4.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 47.2 vs 43 (4.2pt diff)
14
4:25 PM ET
Final
NYG
(1-3)
@
SEA
(3-1)
29 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Home 80% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 42.5 (43.9) 70% +4.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 44.1 vs 49 (4.9pt diff)
11
8:20 PM ET
Final
DAL
(2-2)
@
PIT
(3-1)
20 - 17
Final Score
Winner
Away 67% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 43.5 (32.7) 70% +8.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 45.0 vs 37 (8.0pt diff)
3
8:15 PM ET
Final
NO
(2-2)
@
KC
(4-0)
13 - 26
Final Score
Winner
Away 54% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 43.0 (40.0) 70% +3.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 42.7 vs 39 (3.7pt diff)
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