Goalie value

Goals a goalie saved compared with an average goalie facing the same shots. GSAx uses where each shot came from (the shot-location model, 2025-26 on, charted games only); GSAA only counts shots, so a goalie behind a team that gives up chances in close looks worse than he is. Empty-net goals are excluded. Positive is good. Wins = GSAx (or GSAA where there is no shot chart) ÷ 7.0 goals per win. Skater value →

#GoalieTeamGPShots SV% Expected SV%GSAxGSAx / 60 GSAAGSAA / 60Wins
1 Josh Kotai Augustana 35 1122 0.938 0.910 +27.1 +0.93 +34.5 +0.98 +3.9
2 Johnny Hicks Denver 21 514 0.957 0.913 +22.8 +1.23 +25.9 +1.40 +3.3
3 Lawton Zacher Northeastern 31 966 0.931 0.903 +22.2 +0.80 +23.0 +0.74 +3.2
4 Tyler Muszelik Connecticut 31 929 0.927 0.902 +21.0 +0.81 +18.5 +0.60 +3.0
5 Trey Augustine Michigan State 33 988 0.930 0.909 +19.5 +0.70 +23.0 +0.70 +2.8
6 Michael Hrabal Massachusetts 28 862 0.936 0.913 +19.3 +0.89 +25.3 +0.91 +2.8
7 Alex Tracy Minnesota State 39 976 0.927 0.909 +14.7 +0.44 +19.9 +0.51 +2.1
8 Joshua Fleming Penn State 19 630 0.925 0.897 +13.2 +0.85 +11.7 +0.63 +1.9
9 Oliver Auyeung-Ashton Northern Michigan 18 597 0.930 0.898 +13.1 +1.11 +13.6 +0.86 +1.9
10 Jack Ivankovic Michigan 34 920 0.921 0.907 +12.0 +0.41 +12.7 +0.37 +1.7
11 Rorke Applebee Lake Superior 31 1007 0.914 0.902 +11.9 +0.40 +6.8 +0.23 +1.7
12 Max Lundgren Merrimack 37 1147 0.916 0.903 +10.3 +0.31 +10.8 +0.29 +1.5
13 Teagan Kendrick Sacred Heart 18 507 0.921 0.903 +9.3 +0.55 +7.2 +0.42 +1.3
14 JJ Cataldo Army 32 996 0.921 0.907 +8.9 +0.34 +13.8 +0.43 +1.3
15 Louka Cloutier Boston College 33 840 0.910 0.902 +8.8 +0.30 +2.2 +0.07 +1.3
16 Hampton Slukynsky Western Michigan 39 1047 0.914 0.911 +8.4 +0.28 +7.5 +0.19 +1.2
17 Jackson Irving Massachusetts 8 301 0.934 0.907 +8.1 +1.11 +8.0 +1.10 +1.2
18 Petter Wickström Stumer Canisius 12 365 0.921 0.899 +8.0 +0.73 +5.0 +0.46 +1.1
19 Philip Svedebäck Providence 18 452 0.918 0.903 +7.5 +0.60 +5.1 +0.32 +1.1
20 Jack Parsons Providence 18 445 0.924 0.907 +7.0 +0.43 +7.5 +0.44 +1.0
21 Liam Beerman Lindenwood 14 447 0.906 0.899 +6.9 +0.58 -0.4 -0.03 +1.0
22 Cole Moore Bowling Green 14 355 0.913 0.900 +6.7 +0.58 +2.1 +0.16 +1.0
23 Emmett Croteau Dartmouth 23 579 0.921 0.909 +6.7 +0.29 +7.9 +0.34 +1.0
24 Jacob Steinman Bowling Green 15 382 0.921 0.904 +6.7 +0.47 +5.6 +0.40 +1.0
25 Dominik Wasik Air Force 31 789 0.910 0.901 +6.4 +0.22 +2.5 +0.08 +0.9
26 Tyler Shea Brown 26 902 0.911 0.904 +6.3 +0.26 +4.0 +0.16 +0.9
27 Ajeet Gundarah Sacred Heart 20 560 0.925 0.906 +6.0 +0.40 +10.2 +0.53 +0.9
28 Nate Krawchuk RPI 23 664 0.911 0.907 +5.7 +0.29 +2.9 +0.13 +0.8
29 Jakub Krbecek RIT 31 825 0.918 0.907 +5.3 +0.19 +8.8 +0.29 +0.8
30 Charlie Schenkel Robert Morris 28 798 0.905 0.906 +4.1 +0.18 -1.7 -0.06 +0.6
31 Shane Soderwall Clarkson 35 875 0.905 0.901 +3.9 +0.13 -1.5 -0.05 +0.6
32 Salvatore Evola Mercyhurst 9 311 0.913 0.902 +3.5 +0.42 +2.0 +0.24 +0.5
33 Jan Špunar North Dakota 27 628 0.919 0.908 +3.4 +0.16 +7.5 +0.28 +0.5
34 Dylan Silverstein Quinnipiac 17 360 0.908 0.898 +3.1 +0.25 +0.5 +0.04 +0.4
35 Ben Charette Harvard 34 1019 0.910 0.907 +2.7 +0.08 +2.9 +0.09 +0.4
36 Kaidan Mbereko Colorado College 30 873 0.915 0.905 +2.6 +0.12 +7.3 +0.25 +0.4
37 Nicholas Bevilacqua Bentley 12 309 0.935 0.917 +2.5 +0.25 +8.8 +0.73 +0.4
38 Alexis Cournoyer Cornell 28 659 0.915 0.911 +2.3 +0.09 +5.4 +0.20 +0.3
39 Lukas Swedin Bentley 23 634 0.916 0.913 +2.0 +0.09 +6.0 +0.26 +0.3
40 Kevin Reidler Penn State 18 584 0.901 0.893 +1.7 +0.14 -3.6 -0.21 +0.2
41 Aaron Trotter St. Thomas 14 354 0.910 0.897 +1.7 +0.16 +1.0 +0.07 +0.2
42 Charles-Edward Gravel Mercyhurst 25 815 0.904 0.907 +1.6 +0.08 -2.1 -0.09 +0.2
43 Tyler Krivtsov Alaska-Anchorage 21 717 0.900 0.905 +1.6 +0.09 -5.2 -0.26 +0.2
44 Lassi Lehti Alaska 18 537 0.914 0.906 +0.8 +0.06 +4.0 +0.23 +0.1
45 Adam Gajan Minnesota-Duluth 33 819 0.908 0.907 +0.3 +0.01 +1.3 +0.04 +0.0
46 Brayden Gillespie Union 14 307 0.915 0.914 +0.3 +0.03 +2.6 +0.22 +0.0
47 Patriks Berzins St. Cloud State 17 496 0.909 0.903 +0.3 +0.02 +1.2 +0.08 +0.0
48 Carsen Musser St. Thomas 21 535 0.892 0.904 +0.1 +0.01 -8.2 -0.42 +0.0
49 Samuel Urban Arizona State 16 510 0.904 0.901 -0.3 -0.03 -1.5 -0.11 -0.0
50 Albin Boija Maine 20 494 0.899 0.904 -0.5 -0.03 -4.0 -0.21 -0.1
51 Reid Dyck Colgate 29 845 0.897 0.900 -0.5 -0.02 -8.3 -0.30 -0.1
52 Cameron Smith St. Lawrence 13 449 0.902 0.903 -0.6 -0.05 -2.2 -0.17 -0.1
53 Mikhail Yegorov Boston University 34 924 0.905 0.907 -0.6 -0.02 -1.9 -0.06 -0.1
54 Noah Pak Yale 21 631 0.903 0.904 -0.7 -0.04 -2.2 -0.12 -0.1
55 Owen Bartoszkiewicz Michigan Tech 37 1046 0.911 0.912 -0.9 -0.03 +4.4 +0.12 -0.1
56 Max Hildebrand Bemidji State 24 588 0.895 0.904 -1.4 -0.07 -7.2 -0.32 -0.2
57 Bruno Bruveris RPI 13 303 0.884 0.903 -1.5 -0.20 -6.8 -0.67 -0.2
58 Kyle Chauvette New Hampshire 34 875 0.902 0.901 -1.6 -0.06 -4.5 -0.14 -0.2
59 Arthur Smith Princeton 21 569 0.912 0.915 -1.6 -0.08 +3.0 +0.14 -0.2
60 Matej Marinov Quinnipiac 23 513 0.899 0.900 -1.9 -0.10 -4.2 -0.19 -0.3
61 Samuel Richard Mass.-Lowell 17 413 0.903 0.911 -2.0 -0.16 -1.5 -0.11 -0.3
62 Daniel Duris Long Island 25 801 0.905 0.909 -2.2 -0.12 -1.4 -0.06 -0.3
63 Gibson Homer North Dakota 14 323 0.889 0.908 -2.3 -0.25 -5.9 -0.44 -0.3
64 Quentin Miller Denver 25 663 0.916 0.913 -2.4 -0.14 +5.8 +0.25 -0.3
65 Tomas Anderson Niagara 16 392 0.890 0.902 -3.0 -0.24 -6.5 -0.48 -0.4
66 Matteo Drobac Miami 35 1077 0.912 0.911 -3.1 -0.12 +5.3 +0.15 -0.4
67 Danick Leroux Holy Cross 20 538 0.903 0.909 -3.2 -0.16 -1.9 -0.10 -0.5
68 Connor Hasley Arizona State 23 707 0.905 0.909 -3.6 -0.21 -1.1 -0.05 -0.5
69 Mathis Rousseau Maine 17 393 0.896 0.908 -3.7 -0.25 -4.4 -0.28 -0.5
70 Chase Clark Canisius 24 640 0.903 0.907 -3.9 -0.23 -2.4 -0.10 -0.6
71 Klayton Knapp Lindenwood 15 522 0.879 0.896 -4.0 -0.51 -14.4 -0.99 -0.6
72 Luca Di Pasquo Minnesota 26 878 0.910 0.915 -4.2 -0.18 +2.8 +0.11 -0.6
73 Dawson Cowan Omaha 12 385 0.901 0.905 -4.5 -0.42 -2.1 -0.18 -0.7
74 Daniel Hauser Wisconsin 33 757 0.900 0.902 -5.0 -0.20 -5.5 -0.18 -0.7
75 Martin Lundberg Ferris State 23 597 0.899 0.905 -5.5 -0.28 -4.4 -0.21 -0.8
76 Colin Winn St. Lawrence 9 315 0.883 0.901 -6.2 -0.86 -7.7 -0.93 -0.9
77 Nathan Airey Minnesota 13 339 0.888 0.914 -6.7 -0.93 -6.4 -0.57 -1.0
78 William Gramme Northern Michigan 18 648 0.894 0.895 -6.7 -0.47 -8.6 -0.53 -1.0
79 Simon Latkoczy Omaha 25 748 0.894 0.905 -6.9 -0.35 -9.3 -0.39 -1.0
80 Connor Androlewicz Stonehill 27 813 0.894 0.910 -7.4 -0.33 -10.3 -0.40 -1.1
81 Yan Shostak St. Cloud State 20 555 0.897 0.904 -7.5 -0.73 -5.3 -0.29 -1.1
82 Cameron Korpi Union 25 574 0.901 0.908 -7.5 -0.38 -3.5 -0.15 -1.1
83 Deivs Rolovs Niagara 21 548 0.901 0.906 -7.8 -0.55 -3.0 -0.16 -1.1
84 Hobie Hedquist Ferris State 13 387 0.881 0.907 -7.8 -0.99 -9.9 -0.89 -1.1
85 Austin Elliott Mass.-Lowell 22 522 0.885 0.898 -8.1 -0.50 -11.4 -0.57 -1.2
86 Nicholas Kempf Notre Dame 34 1097 0.893 0.906 -9.4 -0.34 -14.8 -0.45 -1.4
87 Mason Kucenski St. Lawrence 15 449 0.873 0.908 -14.8 -1.34 -15.2 -1.08 -2.1
88 Kristoffer Eberly Ohio State 25 678 0.882 0.897 -16.2 -0.88 -16.9 -0.72 -2.3
89 Aiden Wright Vermont 32 851 0.892 0.912 -21.4 -0.83 -12.7 -0.43 -3.1
How much of this is skill?
  • Season to season, saves above average per 100 shots correlates at r = 0.31 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.49, 137 goalies with 400+ shots in both seasons). Real, but most of one season's number is noise: a +10 goalie is more likely a +3 goalie next year.
  • Within 2025-26, odd games against even games: r = 0.33 with the shot-location adjustment and 0.32 without (32 goalies). The adjustment has not yet made the number more repeatable; there is only one charted season.
  • Teams differ in the shots they allow: 0.085 to 0.105 expected goals per shot on goal (SD 0.004), worth a few goals over a season for a starter.