Defense rankings — 2026 Week 7
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU vs NYG | 8.9 | 2.6 – 16.0 | 16.5 | +2.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | MIN vs IND | 8.2 | 1.9 – 15.3 | 17.8 | +1.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 3 | CLE @ TEN | 8.1 | 1.8 – 15.2 | 17.9 | +1.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 4 | NYJ vs MIA | 7.8 | 1.5 – 14.9 | 18.4 | +1.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 5 | DEN @ ARI | 7.4 | 1.1 – 14.6 | 20.2 | +1.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 6 | DAL @ PHI | 7.4 | 1.1 – 14.6 | 20.2 | +1.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 7 | PIT @ NO | 7.2 | 1.0 – 14.4 | 20.5 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 8 | TEN vs CLE | 7.1 | 0.8 – 14.2 | 19.6 | +1.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 9 | SEA vs KC | 7.0 | 0.7 – 14.1 | 20.6 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 10 | CAR vs TB | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.1 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 11 | CIN @ BAL | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 12 | MIA @ NYJ | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 13 | LA @ LV | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 23.1 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 14 | SF @ ATL | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 23.6 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 15 | KC @ SEA | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 23.6 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 16 | CHI vs NE | 5.8 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 24.0 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 17 | TB @ CAR | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.9 | 24.1 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 18 | NO vs PIT | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 23.7 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 19 | IND @ MIN | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.6 | 24.5 | -0.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 20 | DET vs GB | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 26.1 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 21 | BAL vs CIN | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 22 | ARI vs DEN | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.3 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 23 | PHI vs DAL | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.3 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 24 | NE @ CHI | 4.8 | -1.5 – 11.9 | 27.0 | -0.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 25 | ATL vs SF | 4.8 | -1.5 – 11.9 | 26.4 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 26 | LV vs LA | 4.6 | -1.7 – 11.7 | 26.9 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 27 | NYG @ HOU | 4.5 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 26.8 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 28 | GB @ DET | 4.0 | -2.3 – 11.1 | 29.7 | -1.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.