Defense rankings — 2026 Week 1
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX vs CLE | 9.0 | 2.8 – 16.2 | 15.8 | +2.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2 | PIT vs ATL | 7.9 | 1.6 – 15.1 | 18.3 | +1.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 3 | LAC vs ARI | 7.8 | 1.6 – 15.0 | 19.1 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 4 | PHI vs WAS | 7.5 | 1.2 – 14.7 | 19.5 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 5 | LV vs MIA | 7.5 | 1.2 – 14.6 | 19.1 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 6 | TEN vs NYJ | 7.5 | 1.2 – 14.6 | 19.0 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 7 | NYJ @ TEN | 7.0 | 0.8 – 14.2 | 20.4 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 8 | KC vs DEN | 6.9 | 0.6 – 14.0 | 20.9 | +0.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 9 | SEA vs NE | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.1 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 10 | DET vs NO | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 11 | CHI @ CAR | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 12 | BUF @ HOU | 6.7 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.7 | +0.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 13 | BAL @ IND | 6.7 | 0.4 – 13.8 | 22.1 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 14 | LA vs SF | 6.4 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 15 | DAL @ NYG | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.6 | 22.9 | +0.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 16 | MIA @ LV | 6.3 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 22.2 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 17 | MIN vs GB | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.8 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 18 | DEN @ KC | 6.0 | -0.3 – 13.1 | 23.3 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 19 | CIN vs TB | 6.0 | -0.3 – 13.1 | 23.7 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 20 | HOU vs BUF | 5.8 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 23.4 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 21 | GB @ MIN | 5.7 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 24.3 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 22 | NE @ SEA | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.9 | 24.1 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 23 | ATL @ PIT | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 24 | CLE @ JAX | 5.3 | -1.0 – 12.4 | 24.5 | -0.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 25 | SF @ LA | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.8 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 26 | CAR vs CHI | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 27 | WAS @ PHI | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 25.7 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 28 | IND vs BAL | 4.9 | -1.4 – 12.0 | 25.9 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 29 | NYG vs DAL | 4.8 | -1.4 – 12.0 | 26.1 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 30 | TB @ CIN | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.8 | 27.2 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 31 | NO @ DET | 4.0 | -2.3 – 11.1 | 29.1 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 32 | ARI @ LAC | 3.9 | -2.4 – 11.0 | 28.9 | -1.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.