First-quarter passing yards
DraftKings is the only book posting this market, so there is no Q1 consensus to check it against. The model builds one: the full-game passing line from every book, times the historical first-quarter share (20.4% median).
Graded
2 of 4
2 pending
Model's side, every line
1–1
-0.13u · ROI -6.5% ± 183
Edge ≥ 5 pts
1–0
+0.87u · ROI +87.0%
Brier (lower is better)
0.215
DraftKings 0.248
Miss vs actual Q1 yards
32.3
model median · DK line 35.5
DK Q1 line ÷ full-game
21.5%
model median 20.4%
DK line moves since open
4 / 0
toward / away from the model's opening side · 0 flat
2 graded. A few hundred are needed before any of these numbers can tell the model and DraftKings apart.
| Kickoff | QB | DK open | DK close | Full-game line | Model median | Model P(over) | DK P(over) | Edge | Model side | Q1 yds | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 00:35SF @ LA | Matthew Stafford | 58.5-115 / -112 | 56.5-115 / -113 | 261.08 books | 53.1 | 46.2% | 50.2% | -4.0 | Under -113 | pending | — | toward |
| 2026-09-11 00:35SF @ LA | Brock Purdy | 51.5-113 / -114 | 49.5-116 / -111 | 238.57 books | 48.6 | 48.5% | 50.5% | -2.0 | Under -111 | pending | — | toward |
| 2026-09-10 00:20NE @ SEA | Sam Darnold | 57.5-112 / -115 | 53.5-113 / -115 | 228.57 books | 46.7 | 41.8% | 49.8% | -8.0 | Under -115 | 13 | W +0.87u | toward |
| 2026-09-10 00:20NE @ SEA | Drake Maye | 50.5-112 / -116 | 46.5-113 / -114 | 230.08 books | 46.8 | 50.5% | 49.9% | +0.6 | Over -113 | 16 | L -1.00u | toward |
How it's priced. Each book's main full-game over/under is devigged and
shifted to a median (σ 77 yds); the consensus is the median across books.
The fair Q1 distribution is that consensus times the distribution of a starter's Q1 yards
over his expected full-game yards, from 2489 starts in 2021–2025.
Fitted on 2021–2024, its 10/25/50/75/90th
percentiles caught
13%/26%/50%/75%/89%
of 2025. One distribution serves every QB: the share only looks lower for high-volume passers
when they're ranked by a noisy trailing average.
What each column means. Close = DraftKings' last snapshot before kickoff, devigged against itself. Edge = model P(over) minus DraftKings'. Bets are 1 unit at DraftKings' price on the model's side. Edge threshold was fixed before any game was graded. Move = whether DraftKings' line moved toward the side the model preferred at open. Times are UTC.
What each column means. Close = DraftKings' last snapshot before kickoff, devigged against itself. Edge = model P(over) minus DraftKings'. Bets are 1 unit at DraftKings' price on the model's side. Edge threshold was fixed before any game was graded. Move = whether DraftKings' line moved toward the side the model preferred at open. Times are UTC.