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college_hockey_eval · 3
College hockey betting angles backlog (2026-09-29)
Context. The model loses to the market (FINDINGS_MODEL_VS_MARKET.md): log loss 0.625 vs 0.603. Fading it also loses. Anything that squeezes more prediction out of the same stats is dead. These angles are timing ones, or use information the line may not have.
backtests/college_hockey_eval/ANGLES_BACKLOG.md
Pre-registration: roster turnover vs the October market (2026-27)
Frozen 2026-09-29, before the season's first puck drop on 2026-10-02. The commit containing this file, forward_2026_team_ratings.json and roster_turnover_forward.py is the record. Nothing in them changes after 2026-10-02. Any later change goes in an "Amendment…
backtests/college_hockey_eval/PREREG_ROSTER_TURNOVER_2026.md
College hockey model vs the betting market (first comparison, 2026-09-29)
The market is better than the model, and the model adds nothing to it.
backtests/college_hockey_eval/FINDINGS_MODEL_VS_MARKET.md