Pick'em Mode

Week 5
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
0
Points Earned
120
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
15
Pending
15
pts
LV LV
@
NE NE *
2026-10-11 13:00 Favorite
LV -8.5
Clear favorite
Pending
14
pts
CIN CIN *
@
MIA MIA
2026-10-11 13:00 Favorite
MIA -5.5
Moderate favorite
Pending
13
pts
TB TB
@
DAL DAL *
2026-10-08 20:15 Favorite
TB -3.5
Slight favorite
Pending
12
pts
SF SF
@
SEA SEA *
2026-10-11 16:25 Favorite
SF -3.5
Slight favorite
Pending
11
pts
HOU HOU *
@
TEN TEN
2026-10-11 13:00 Favorite
TEN -3.5
Slight favorite
Pending
10
pts
DEN DEN
@
LAC LAC *
2026-10-11 16:05 Model
DEN -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
9
pts
PHI PHI
@
JAX JAX *
2026-10-11 09:30 Model
JAX -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
8
pts
CLE CLE
@
NYJ NYJ *
2026-10-11 13:00 Model
CLE -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
7
pts
IND IND
@
PIT PIT *
2026-10-11 13:00 Model
IND -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
6
pts
NYG NYG
@
WAS WAS *
2026-10-11 13:00 Model
NYG -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
5
pts
MIN MIN
@
NO NO *
2026-10-11 13:00 Model
NO -1.5
Toss-up
Pending
4
pts
DET DET
@
ARI ARI *
2026-10-11 16:25 Model
DET -0.0
Toss-up
Pending
3
pts
CHI CHI
@
GB GB *
2026-10-11 16:25 Model
CHI -0.0
Toss-up
Pending
2
pts
BAL BAL
@
ATL ATL *
2026-10-11 20:20 Model
BAL -0.0
Toss-up
Pending
1
pts
BUF BUF
@
LA LA *
2026-10-12 20:15 Model
BUF -0.0
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 15 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.