Pick'em Mode

Week 5

Optimized Hybrid

Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.

Points Earned

120

Points Possible

0.0%

Percentage

0-0

Record

Pending

Pts	Matchup	Spread	Result
15	TB @ DAL 2026-10-08 20:15 Model	TB -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
14	PHI @ JAX 2026-10-11 09:30 Model	PHI -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
13	CIN @ MIA 2026-10-11 13:00 Model	CIN -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
12	LV @ NE 2026-10-11 13:00 Model	LV -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
11	MIN @ NO 2026-10-11 13:00 Model	MIN -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
10	CLE @ NYJ 2026-10-11 13:00 Model	CLE -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
9	IND @ PIT 2026-10-11 13:00 Model	IND -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
8	HOU @ TEN 2026-10-11 13:00 Model	HOU -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
7	NYG @ WAS 2026-10-11 13:00 Model	NYG -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
6	DEN @ LAC 2026-10-11 16:05 Model	DEN -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
5	DET @ ARI 2026-10-11 16:25 Model	DET -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
4	CHI @ GB 2026-10-11 16:25 Model	CHI -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
3	SF @ SEA 2026-10-11 16:25 Model	SF -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
2	BAL @ ATL 2026-10-11 20:20 Model	BAL -0.0 Toss-up	Pending
1	BUF @ LA 2026-10-12 20:15 Model	BUF -0.0 Toss-up	Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 15 = most confident.
Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.