Pick'em Mode

Week 5
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
0
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
16
Pending
16
pts
Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs *
@
Detroit Lions Detroit Lions
2026-09-15 Favorite
DET -12.9
Strong favorite
Pending
15
pts
Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts
@
Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals *
2026-09-15 Favorite
IND -13.1
Strong favorite
Pending
14
pts
New York Jets New York Jets
@
Los Angeles Rams Los Angeles Rams *
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -13.0
Strong favorite
Pending
13
pts
Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers
@
Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars *
2026-09-15 Favorite
GRE -12.2
Strong favorite
Pending
12
pts
Las Vegas Raiders Las Vegas Raiders *
@
Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers
2026-09-15 Favorite
PIT -10.6
Strong favorite
Pending
11
pts
San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers *
@
New England Patriots New England Patriots
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -9.9
Clear favorite
Pending
10
pts
Chicago Bears Chicago Bears *
@
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles
2026-09-15 Favorite
PHI -9.0
Clear favorite
Pending
9
pts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Miami Dolphins Miami Dolphins *
2026-09-15 Favorite
TAM -8.0
Clear favorite
Pending
8
pts
Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans
@
Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens *
2026-09-15 Favorite
TEN -6.9
Moderate favorite
Pending
7
pts
New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints
@
Washington Commanders Washington Commanders *
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -6.2
Moderate favorite
Pending
6
pts
Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills
@
Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals *
2026-09-15 Favorite
BUF -5.8
Moderate favorite
Pending
5
pts
Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons *
@
Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings
2026-09-15 Favorite
MIN -4.5
Moderate favorite
Pending
4
pts
Denver Broncos Denver Broncos *
@
Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles Chargers
2026-09-15 Favorite
LOS -3.6
Slight favorite
Pending
3
pts
Cleveland Browns Cleveland Browns
@
Houston Texans Houston Texans *
2026-09-15 Model
HOU -1.0
Toss-up
Pending
2
pts
Carolina Panthers Carolina Panthers
@
Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys *
2026-09-15 Model
DAL -0.7
Toss-up
Pending
1
pts
Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks *
@
New York Giants New York Giants
2026-09-15 Model
SEA -0.3
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.