Research Library
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nhl_eval · 2
Do shift-derived ice time minutes improve shots-on-goal predictions? (2026-10-05)
Data: NHL shift charts 2021-22..2025-26 (6,936 games, ~5.3M shifts; 57 2024-25 games missing from the NHL feed) → player_games (TOI by EV/PP/PK + SOG). Regular season only. Scored 2022-23..2025-26: 169,298 player-games with ≥ 5 prior games. Every prediction is…
backtests/nhl_eval/FINDINGS_SOG_TOI.md
NHL Stacking v3 — De-Snooping Campaign Findings
Model: nhl_stacking_v3 (production's only currently-profitable model) Scope: honest, de-snooped performance measurement + hygiene-fix evaluation — NOT a search for new alpha Data: [redacted], 17,155 regular-season games, 2008–2024 (nhl_games join …
backtests/nhl_eval/FINDINGS.md