Research Library
Every findings document in the repo, rendered. Sourced directly from the
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deliberately: most of what's here is a hypothesis that didn't survive.
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pickem · 6
How well does the public pick? — field baseline, 2014–2025
2026-09-13. field_baseline.py → field_baseline_results.json (gitignored). Source: NFL Pickwatch per-game pick shares, captured by scripts/nfl/capture_pickwatch.py into [redacted] (weekly cron, Tue 14:00 UTC). Lines and results come from nflverse, not…
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_FIELD_BASELINE.md
Winning a 30-Person Confidence Pool
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: pool_strategy_sim.py → pool_strategy_sim_results.json · 6,000 simulated seasons per regime · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_POOL_2026.md
Testing "always pick the favorite" — and why a Monte Carlo can't do it
2026-08-12. calibration_test.py, 6,937 REG games, 1999–2025.
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_CALIBRATION_2026.md
Season Prize vs Weekly Prize: Shoot for the Season
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: pool_ev_analysis.py → pool_ev_analysis_results.json · 4,000 simulated seasons per regime · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_EV_2026.md
Best Pick'em Strategy for 2026: Pick Every Favorite
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: strategy_search_2026.py → strategy_search_2026_results.json · Data: 2,119 REG games, 2018–2025 · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_STRATEGY_2026.md
Confidence Pick'em — Honest Rebuild (2018–2025)
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: backtest_pickem.py → backtest_pickem_results.json · Sample: 2,119 completed regular-season games · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS.md