Research Library

Every findings document in the repo, rendered. Sourced directly from the markdown under backtests/ and docs/ — nothing to register, a new file shows up here automatically. Negative results are kept deliberately: most of what's here is a hypothesis that didn't survive.

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All areas backtests bet_timing cfb_eval clv_line_adjustment college_hockey_eval docs elway_review ev_clv_prereg_2026_09 ev_record_2026_08 fantasy_eval fantasy_model_audit hr_derby injury_impact kelly_sim kicker_dst leg_correlation middles ncaab_eval nfl_context_signals nfl_edges nfl_game_quality nfl_prop_usage nfl_war nhl_eval pickem pickem_tiebreak player_movement preseason_signal qb_handedness qb_weather split_miner stable_filter_audit stacking_eval strategies tennis_eval weather_ftn_value
player_movement · 2
What does transferring actually do? (college hockey) 2026-09-08 · 5kb
2026-09-08. 5,494 skater and 307 goalie player-season pairs, 2020-2024, from college_hockey_player_game_stats joined to the transfer sheet ingested in e5746b5. A pair is a player who appears in season N and again in N+1, so both sides of a move are observed.
backtests/player_movement/FINDINGS_TRANSFERS.md
Detecting departures without an early-departure list 2026-09-08 · 3kb
2026-09-08. We have no historical early-departure data, so the working premise was: read departures off game-1 rosters instead, accepting that we only learn them once the season starts and so cannot forecast with them.
backtests/player_movement/FINDINGS.md