Research Library
Every findings document in the repo, rendered. Sourced directly from the
markdown under backtests/ and docs/ — nothing to
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deliberately: most of what's here is a hypothesis that didn't survive.
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All areas
backtests
bet_timing
cfb_eval
clv_line_adjustment
college_hockey_eval
docs
elway_review
ev_clv_prereg_2026_09
ev_record_2026_08
fantasy_eval
fantasy_model_audit
hr_derby
injury_impact
kelly_sim
kicker_dst
leg_correlation
middles
ncaab_eval
nfl_context_signals
nfl_edges
nfl_game_quality
nfl_prop_usage
nfl_war
nhl_eval
pickem
pickem_tiebreak
player_movement
preseason_signal
qb_handedness
qb_weather
split_miner
stable_filter_audit
stacking_eval
strategies
tennis_eval
weather_ftn_value
stacking_eval · 4
Tennis consensus-stacking evaluation — REJECT (2026-07-04)
rejected
A full historical backtest was possible: [redacted]::tennis_matches (81,622 matches 2010-2026 with embedded closing odds: market average, Pinnacle, best price) + tennis_match_elo (point-in-time pre-match Elo, through 2024-11-17). Joined usable set: 69,090 …
backtests/stacking_eval/tennis/REPORT.md
NCAAB consensus-stacking evaluation — REJECT (2026-07-04)
rejected
The best-prior candidate (soft small-conference markets), tested on our largest capture. Verdict: consensus wins everything.
backtests/stacking_eval/ncaab/REPORT.md
MLB consensus-stacking pilot — INSUFFICIENT DATA, leaning REJECT (2026-07-04)
rejected
Question: does blending the pitcher-adjusted Elo v2 prob into the devigged closing consensus (NHL v3 recipe) beat consensus-only?
backtests/stacking_eval/mlb/REPORT.md
NFL consensus-stacking evaluation — REJECT (2026-07-04)
rejected
Question: does the NHL v3 "top-down" recipe (tiny logistic on devigged closing consensus + small orthogonal features) beat the NFL closing moneyline?
backtests/stacking_eval/nfl/REPORT.md