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Week 10 Predictions

NFL 2024 Season

This Week
14
Games
0
Live
14
Final
9-5
ML Record
+22.7%
ML ROI
75/105
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date 152 total predictions
96-56
ML (63.2%)
-1.0%
ML ROI
85-67
Spread
+7.1%
Spread ROI
86-64-2
Totals
+9.4%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
High Confidence Strategy (65%+ ML confidence) OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023) *ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons. Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing. CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023: 61.3% (73-46, +17.1% ROI) CI: 52-70%
2024: 69.7% (83-36, +33.2% ROI) CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set. Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2024 Season (Live Tracking)
45-13
Filtered ML
+10.7%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
12
8:15 PM ET
Final
CIN
(4-5)
@
BAL
(6-3)
34 - 35
Final Score
Winner
Home 75% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 53.0 (56.1) 70% +17.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 51.3 vs 69 (17.7pt diff)
3
9:30 AM ET
Final
NYG
(2-7)
@
CAR
(2-7)
17 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Away 68% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 40.5 (34.1) 70% +2.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 39.8 vs 37 (2.8pt diff)
13
1:00 PM ET
Final
NE
(2-7)
@
CHI
(4-4)
19 - 3
Final Score
Winner
Home 78% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 37.5 (39.9) 70% +16.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 38.9 vs 22 (16.9pt diff)
10
1:00 PM ET
Final
BUF
(7-2)
@
IND
(4-5)
30 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Away 74% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.5 (42.2) 70% +1.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 49.0 vs 50 (1.0pt diff)
7
1:00 PM ET
Final
MIN
(6-2)
@
JAX
(2-7)
12 - 7
Final Score
Winner
Home 71% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 42.5 (38.3) 70% +24.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 43.9 vs 19 (24.9pt diff)
4
1:00 PM ET
Final
DEN
(5-4)
@
KC
(8-0)
14 - 16
Final Score
Winner
Home 69% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 42.5 (48.1) 70% +15.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 45.0 vs 30 (15.0pt diff)
1
1:00 PM ET
Final
ATL
(6-3)
@
NO
(2-7)
17 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Away 61% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 46.5 (42.5) 70% +12.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 49.5 vs 37 (12.5pt diff)
14
1:00 PM ET
Final
SF
(4-4)
@
TB
(4-5)
23 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Away 80% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 50.5 (34.8) 70% +4.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 47.7 vs 43 (4.7pt diff)
11
1:00 PM ET
Final
PIT
(6-2)
@
WAS
(7-2)
28 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Away 75% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 45.0 (42.3) 70% +7.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 47.8 vs 55 (7.2pt diff)
5
4:05 PM ET
Final
TEN
(2-6)
@
LAC
(5-3)
17 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Home 70% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 40.0 (43.6) 70% +7.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 37.0 vs 44 (7.0pt diff)
8
4:25 PM ET
Final
NYJ
(3-6)
@
ARI
(5-4)
6 - 31
Final Score
Winner
Home 71% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 45.5 (54.6) 70% +10.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 47.5 vs 37 (10.5pt diff)
9
4:25 PM ET
Final
PHI
(6-2)
@
DAL
(3-5)
34 - 6
Final Score
Winner
Away 72% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 44.5 (38.5) 70% +5.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 45.7 vs 40 (5.7pt diff)
6
8:20 PM ET
Final
DET
(7-1)
@
HOU
(6-3)
26 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Away 70% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 49.0 (51.1) 70% +2.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 51.2 vs 49 (2.2pt diff)
2
8:15 PM ET
Final
MIA
(2-6)
@
LA
(4-4)
23 - 15
Final Score
Winner
Home 66% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 49.5 (46.2) 70% +10.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 48.5 vs 38 (10.5pt diff)
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