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Week 12 Predictions

NFL 2024 Season

This Week
13
Games
0
Live
13
Final
10-3
ML Record
+46.9%
ML ROI
62/91
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date 179 total predictions
114-65
ML (63.7%)
-1.3%
ML ROI
100-79
Spread
+7.1%
Spread ROI
96-81-2
Totals
+3.5%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
High Confidence Strategy (65%+ ML confidence) OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023) *ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons. Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing. CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023: 61.3% (73-46, +17.1% ROI) CI: 52-70%
2024: 69.7% (83-36, +33.2% ROI) CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set. Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2024 Season (Live Tracking)
50-14
Filtered ML
+10.8%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
9
8:15 PM ET
Final
PIT
(8-2)
@
CLE
(2-8)
19 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Home 70% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 36.5 (33.1) 70% +8.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 34.4 vs 43 (8.6pt diff)
3
1:00 PM ET
Final
KC
(9-1)
@
CAR
(3-7)
30 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Home 56% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 43.0 (40.6) 70% +16.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 40.2 vs 57 (16.8pt diff)
11
1:00 PM ET
Final
MIN
(8-2)
@
CHI
(4-6)
30 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Home 75% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 39.5 (44.1) 70% +14.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 42.4 vs 57 (14.6pt diff)
7
1:00 PM ET
Final
TEN
(2-8)
@
HOU
(7-4)
32 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Home 66% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 40.5 (46.7) 70% +19.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 39.5 vs 59 (19.5pt diff)
10
1:00 PM ET
Final
DET
(9-1)
@
IND
(5-6)
24 - 6
Final Score
Winner
Away 71% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 50.5 (54.9) 70% +23.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 53.3 vs 30 (23.3pt diff)
8
1:00 PM ET
Final
NE
(3-8)
@
MIA
(4-6)
15 - 34
Final Score
Winner
Home 68% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.0 (45.9) 70% +5.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 43.2 vs 49 (5.8pt diff)
12
1:00 PM ET
Final
TB
(4-6)
@
NYG
(2-8)
30 - 7
Final Score
Winner
Away 79% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 40.5 (43.9) 70% +6.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 43.5 vs 37 (6.5pt diff)
13
1:00 PM ET
Final
DAL
(3-7)
@
WAS
(7-4)
34 - 26
Final Score
Winner
Home 80% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 45.0 (51.4) 70% +15.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 44.7 vs 60 (15.3pt diff)
4
4:05 PM ET
Final
DEN
(6-5)
@
LV
(2-8)
29 - 19
Final Score
Winner
Away 58% ✓
ML All
Total
Over 41.5 (52.4) 70% +7.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 40.3 vs 48 (7.7pt diff)
2
4:25 PM ET
Final
SF
(5-5)
@
GB
(7-3)
10 - 38
Final Score
Winner
Home 51% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 44.5 (41.8) 70% +2.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 45.5 vs 48 (2.5pt diff)
6
4:25 PM ET
Final
ARI
(6-4)
@
SEA
(5-5)
6 - 16
Final Score
Winner
Home 63% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.5 (44.8) 70% +22.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 44.0 vs 22 (22.0pt diff)
1
8:20 PM ET
Final
PHI
(8-2)
@
LA
(5-5)
37 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Away 51% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 49.0 (44.6) 70% +10.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.8 vs 57 (10.2pt diff)
5
8:15 PM ET
Final
BAL
(7-4)
@
LAC
(7-3)
30 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Away 58% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 51.0 (42.0) 70% +1.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 51.7 vs 53 (1.3pt diff)
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