Week 4 Predictions
NFL 2024 Season
This Week
16
Games
0
Live
16
Final
12-4
ML Record
+43.2%
ML ROI
103/136
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date
64 total predictions
40-24
ML (62.5%)
-6.2%
ML ROI
40-24
Spread
+19.0%
Spread ROI
35-29
Totals
+4.2%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
Understanding Our Metrics
Win Rate (%)
Percentage of correct predictions. At standard -110 odds, you need 52.4% to break even. Professional sports bettors typically achieve 54-57% long-term.
ROI (Return on Investment)
Profit/loss as a percentage of total wagered. Example: +5% ROI means $5 profit per $100 wagered. Our ROI assumes flat $100 bets at -110 odds.
Confidence (%)
Model's calculated probability for the predicted outcome. Higher confidence = stronger conviction. Note: 70% confidence does NOT mean 70% guaranteed win rate.
Sample Size Matters
Results from 20 games are far less reliable than 200 games. We show sample sizes so you can judge statistical significance. Small samples (under 50) should be viewed with caution.
High Confidence Strategy
(65%+ ML confidence)
OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023)
*ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons.
Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing.
CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023:
61.3%
(73-46, +17.1% ROI)
CI: 52-70%
2024:
69.7%
(83-36, +33.2% ROI)
CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set.
Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2024 Season (Live Tracking)
18-9
Filtered ML
-3.9%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
12
8:15 PM ET
Final
DAL
(1-2)
@
NYG
(1-2)
20 - 15
Final Score
Winner
Away
73%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 45.0
(44.3)
70%
+12.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 47.7 vs 35 (12.7pt diff)
Total: 47.7 vs 35 (12.7pt diff)
11
1:00 PM ET
Final
NO
(2-1)
@
ATL
(1-2)
24 - 26
Final Score
Winner
Home
71%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 41.5
(40.6)
70%
+7.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 42.5 vs 50 (7.5pt diff)
Total: 42.5 vs 50 (7.5pt diff)
3
1:00 PM ET
Final
CIN
(0-3)
@
CAR
(1-2)
34 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Home
58%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 47.0
(46.3)
70%
+9.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 49.0 vs 58 (9.0pt diff)
Total: 49.0 vs 58 (9.0pt diff)
2
1:00 PM ET
Final
LA
(1-2)
@
CHI
(1-2)
18 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Away
57%
✓
ML All
Total
Over 40.0
(44.6)
70%
+1.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 40.9 vs 42 (1.1pt diff)
Total: 40.9 vs 42 (1.1pt diff)
13
1:00 PM ET
Final
MIN
(3-0)
@
GB
(2-1)
31 - 29
Final Score
Winner
Home
76%
✗
ML All
Total
Under 44.0
(42.9)
70%
+13.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 46.3 vs 60 (13.7pt diff)
Total: 46.3 vs 60 (13.7pt diff)
5
1:00 PM ET
Final
JAX
(0-3)
@
HOU
(2-1)
20 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Away
61%
✓
ML All
Total
Over 44.5
(46.2)
70%
+2.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 41.9 vs 44 (2.1pt diff)
Total: 41.9 vs 44 (2.1pt diff)
1
1:00 PM ET
Final
PIT
(3-0)
@
IND
(1-2)
24 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Away
52%
✓
ML All
Total
Over 40.0
(40.5)
70%
+8.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 42.7 vs 51 (8.3pt diff)
Total: 42.7 vs 51 (8.3pt diff)
6
1:00 PM ET
Final
DEN
(1-2)
@
NYJ
(2-1)
10 - 9
Final Score
Winner
Home
63%
✗
ML All
Total
Over 39.5
(42.7)
70%
+21.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 40.3 vs 19 (21.3pt diff)
Total: 40.3 vs 19 (21.3pt diff)
9
1:00 PM ET
Final
PHI
(2-1)
@
TB
(2-1)
16 - 33
Final Score
Winner
Home
68%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 42.0
(40.9)
70%
+5.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 43.6 vs 49 (5.4pt diff)
Total: 43.6 vs 49 (5.4pt diff)
10
4:05 PM ET
Final
WAS
(2-1)
@
ARI
(1-2)
42 - 14
Final Score
Winner
Home
69%
✗
ML All
Total
Under 49.0
(48.7)
70%
+9.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 46.2 vs 56 (9.8pt diff)
Total: 46.2 vs 56 (9.8pt diff)
15
4:05 PM ET
Final
NE
(1-2)
@
SF
(1-2)
13 - 30
Final Score
Winner
Home
84%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 41.5
(41.0)
70%
+4.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 39.0 vs 43 (4.0pt diff)
Total: 39.0 vs 43 (4.0pt diff)
16
4:25 PM ET
Final
KC
(3-0)
@
LAC
(2-1)
17 - 10
Final Score
Winner
Away
86%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 41.5
(37.7)
70%
+11.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 38.6 vs 27 (11.6pt diff)
Total: 38.6 vs 27 (11.6pt diff)
8
4:25 PM ET
Final
CLE
(1-2)
@
LV
(1-2)
16 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Away
66%
✓
ML All
Total
Over 36.5
(39.5)
70%
+1.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 34.6 vs 36 (1.4pt diff)
Total: 34.6 vs 36 (1.4pt diff)
7
8:20 PM ET
Final
BUF
(3-0)
@
BAL
(1-2)
10 - 35
Final Score
Winner
Home
66%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.5
(42.8)
70%
+0.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 44.5 vs 45 (0.5pt diff)
Total: 44.5 vs 45 (0.5pt diff)
4
7:30 PM ET
Final
TEN
(0-3)
@
MIA
(1-2)
31 - 12
Final Score
Winner
Away
61%
✗
ML All
Total
Over 37.0
(37.7)
70%
+5.0pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 38.0 vs 43 (5.0pt diff)
Total: 38.0 vs 43 (5.0pt diff)
14
8:15 PM ET
Final
SEA
(3-0)
@
DET
(2-1)
29 - 42
Final Score
Winner
Home
82%
✓
ML All
Total
Over 46.5
(47.5)
70%
+21.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 49.1 vs 71 (21.9pt diff)
Total: 49.1 vs 71 (21.9pt diff)
↻