Pick'em Mode

Week 7
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
0
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
16
Pending
16
pts
Houston Texans Houston Texans *
@
Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens
2026-09-15 Favorite
BAL -12.1
Strong favorite
Pending
15
pts
San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers *
@
Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys
2026-09-15 Favorite
DAL -11.8
Strong favorite
Pending
14
pts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers *
@
Washington Commanders Washington Commanders
2026-09-15 Favorite
WAS -10.2
Strong favorite
Pending
13
pts
Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans *
@
Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals
2026-09-15 Favorite
CIN -10.0
Strong favorite
Pending
12
pts
Las Vegas Raiders Las Vegas Raiders
@
New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints *
2026-09-15 Favorite
LAS -10.3
Strong favorite
Pending
11
pts
Chicago Bears Chicago Bears
@
Detroit Lions Detroit Lions *
2026-09-15 Favorite
CHI -9.3
Clear favorite
Pending
10
pts
Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons
@
Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers *
2026-09-15 Favorite
ATL -8.4
Clear favorite
Pending
9
pts
Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals *
@
New England Patriots New England Patriots
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -7.7
Clear favorite
Pending
8
pts
Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs
@
Los Angeles Rams Los Angeles Rams *
2026-09-15 Favorite
KAN -7.0
Clear favorite
Pending
7
pts
Cleveland Browns Cleveland Browns *
@
New York Giants New York Giants
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -6.5
Moderate favorite
Pending
6
pts
Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks *
@
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles
2026-09-15 Favorite
PHI -3.3
Slight favorite
Pending
5
pts
Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars *
@
Carolina Panthers Carolina Panthers
2026-09-15 Model
JAC -2.7
Slight favorite
Pending
4
pts
Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts *
@
Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills
2026-09-15 Model
IND -2.6
Slight favorite
Pending
3
pts
Denver Broncos Denver Broncos *
@
Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings
2026-09-15 Model
DEN -2.1
Toss-up
Pending
2
pts
Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers
@
Miami Dolphins Miami Dolphins *
2026-09-15 Model
MIA -0.9
Toss-up
Pending
1
pts
New York Jets New York Jets *
@
Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles Chargers
2026-09-15 Model
NEW -0.1
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.