Pick'em Mode

Week 20
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
0
Points Earned
36
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
8
Pending
8
pts
Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers
@
Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts *
2026-09-15 Favorite
GRE -13.8
Strong favorite
Pending
7
pts
Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars *
@
Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens
2026-09-15 Favorite
BAL -13.0
Strong favorite
Pending
6
pts
Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons
@
New York Giants New York Giants *
2026-09-15 Favorite
ATL -12.0
Strong favorite
Pending
5
pts
Houston Texans Houston Texans
@
Cleveland Browns Cleveland Browns *
2026-09-15 Favorite
HOU -5.2
Moderate favorite
Pending
4
pts
Carolina Panthers Carolina Panthers
@
Denver Broncos Denver Broncos *
2026-09-15 Favorite
CAR -3.9
Slight favorite
Pending
3
pts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals *
2026-09-15 Favorite
TAM -3.1
Slight favorite
Pending
2
pts
San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers
@
Miami Dolphins Miami Dolphins *
2026-09-15 Model
MIA -1.9
Toss-up
Pending
1
pts
Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers *
@
New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints
2026-09-15 Model
PIT -2.1
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-8 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 8 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.