Pick'em Mode
Week 21Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
0
Points Earned
36
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
8
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
 Atlanta Falcons
@
 Pittsburgh Steelers
|
PIT -13.0
Strong favorite
|
Pending
|
| 7 |
 Tennessee Titans
@
 Buffalo Bills
|
TEN -10.0
Strong favorite
|
Pending
|
| 6 |
 Kansas City Chiefs
@
 New England Patriots
|
KAN -9.7
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 5 |
 Miami Dolphins
@
 Houston Texans
|
MIA -9.2
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 4 |
 Chicago Bears
@
 Indianapolis Colts
|
IND -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 3 |
 Los Angeles Rams
@
 Dallas Cowboys
|
LOS -8.7
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 2 |
 Detroit Lions
@
 Los Angeles Chargers
|
DET -1.9
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
| 1 |
 Cincinnati Bengals
@
 Green Bay Packers
|
CIN -1.2
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-8 to each pick.
1= least confident,8= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.