Pick'em Mode

Week 22
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
0
Points Earned
36
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
8
Pending
Pts Matchup Spread Result
8
New England PatriotsNew England Patriots @ Cleveland BrownsCleveland Browns
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -13.4
Strong favorite
Pending
7
San Francisco 49ersSan Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota VikingsMinnesota Vikings
2026-09-15 Favorite
SAN -11.2
Strong favorite
Pending
6
Dallas CowboysDallas Cowboys @ New Orleans SaintsNew Orleans Saints
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -5.5
Moderate favorite
Pending
5
Indianapolis ColtsIndianapolis Colts @ Green Bay PackersGreen Bay Packers
2026-09-15 Favorite
GRE -4.8
Moderate favorite
Pending
4
Tampa Bay BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York JetsNew York Jets
2026-09-15 Favorite
TAM -4.9
Moderate favorite
Pending
3
Philadelphia EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars
2026-09-15 Model
JAC -2.3
Toss-up
Pending
2
Atlanta FalconsAtlanta Falcons @ Arizona CardinalsArizona Cardinals
2026-09-15 Model
ATL -1.0
Toss-up
Pending
1
Detroit LionsDetroit Lions @ Las Vegas RaidersLas Vegas Raiders
2026-09-15 Model
DET -0.6
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-8 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 8 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.