Pick'em Mode

Week 22
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
0
Points Earned
36
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
8
Pending
Pts Matchup Spread Result
8
Tampa Bay BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles RamsLos Angeles Rams
2026-09-15 Favorite
TAM -13.3
Strong favorite
Pending
7
San Francisco 49ersSan Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo BillsBuffalo Bills
2026-09-15 Favorite
SAN -9.2
Clear favorite
Pending
6
Atlanta FalconsAtlanta Falcons @ New England PatriotsNew England Patriots
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -7.7
Clear favorite
Pending
5
Dallas CowboysDallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas RaidersLas Vegas Raiders
2026-09-15 Favorite
DAL -6.1
Moderate favorite
Pending
4
Houston TexansHouston Texans @ Tennessee TitansTennessee Titans
2026-09-15 Favorite
HOU -4.7
Moderate favorite
Pending
3
Carolina PanthersCarolina Panthers @ Los Angeles ChargersLos Angeles Chargers
2026-09-15 Favorite
CAR -4.0
Moderate favorite
Pending
2
Miami DolphinsMiami Dolphins @ Green Bay PackersGreen Bay Packers
2026-09-15 Model
GRE -2.0
Toss-up
Pending
1
Philadelphia EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati BengalsCincinnati Bengals
2026-09-15 Model
CIN -1.8
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-8 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 8 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.