Pick'em Mode

Week 3
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
0
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
16
Pending
16
pts
Cleveland Browns Cleveland Browns
@
San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers *
2026-09-15 Favorite
CLE -13.9
Strong favorite
Pending
15
pts
Miami Dolphins Miami Dolphins
@
Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts *
2026-09-15 Favorite
MIA -10.9
Strong favorite
Pending
14
pts
New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints *
@
Las Vegas Raiders Las Vegas Raiders
2026-09-15 Favorite
LAS -9.0
Clear favorite
Pending
13
pts
Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Carolina Panthers Carolina Panthers *
2026-09-15 Favorite
PIT -9.2
Clear favorite
Pending
12
pts
Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles Chargers
@
Detroit Lions Detroit Lions *
2026-09-15 Favorite
LOS -7.2
Clear favorite
Pending
11
pts
New York Jets New York Jets
@
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles *
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -7.0
Clear favorite
Pending
10
pts
Denver Broncos Denver Broncos
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers *
2026-09-15 Favorite
DEN -6.9
Moderate favorite
Pending
9
pts
Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings *
@
New York Giants New York Giants
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -6.1
Moderate favorite
Pending
8
pts
Washington Commanders Washington Commanders
@
Los Angeles Rams Los Angeles Rams *
2026-09-15 Favorite
WAS -6.1
Moderate favorite
Pending
7
pts
Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals *
@
Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans
2026-09-15 Favorite
TEN -4.9
Moderate favorite
Pending
6
pts
Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens *
@
Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals
2026-09-15 Favorite
ARI -3.3
Slight favorite
Pending
5
pts
Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs *
2026-09-15 Favorite
JAC -3.5
Slight favorite
Pending
4
pts
Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys *
@
Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons
2026-09-15 Model
DAL -2.9
Slight favorite
Pending
3
pts
Houston Texans Houston Texans *
@
New England Patriots New England Patriots
2026-09-15 Model
HOU -2.8
Slight favorite
Pending
2
pts
Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers *
@
Chicago Bears Chicago Bears
2026-09-15 Model
GRE -2.0
Toss-up
Pending
1
pts
Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks *
@
Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills
2026-09-15 Model
SEA -1.1
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.