Pick'em Mode

Week 4
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
0
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
16
Pending
2026 Season
← Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 →
Full Predictions
16
pts
TEN TEN
@
BAL BAL *
2026-10-04 13:00 Favorite
TEN -8.5
Clear favorite
Pending
15
pts
NYJ NYJ
@
CHI CHI *
2026-10-04 13:00 Favorite
NYJ -8.5
Clear favorite
Pending
14
pts
MIA MIA
@
MIN MIN *
2026-10-04 16:05 Favorite
MIA -7.5
Clear favorite
Pending
13
pts
ARI ARI
@
NYG NYG *
2026-10-04 13:00 Favorite
ARI -7.0
Clear favorite
Pending
12
pts
KC KC *
@
LV LV
2026-10-04 16:25 Favorite
LV -5.5
Moderate favorite
Pending
11
pts
NE NE
@
BUF BUF *
2026-10-04 13:00 Favorite
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
Pending
10
pts
LAC LAC
@
SEA SEA *
2026-10-04 16:25 Favorite
LAC -3.0
Slight favorite
Pending
9
pts
PIT PIT *
@
CLE CLE
2026-10-01 20:15 Favorite
CLE -3.0
Slight favorite
Pending
8
pts
DET DET *
@
CAR CAR
2026-10-04 20:20 Favorite
CAR -3.0
Slight favorite
Pending
7
pts
JAX JAX
@
CIN CIN *
2026-10-04 13:00 Model
JAX -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
6
pts
DAL DAL
@
HOU HOU *
2026-10-04 13:00 Model
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
5
pts
DEN DEN
@
SF SF *
2026-10-04 16:25 Model
DEN -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
4
pts
ATL ATL
@
NO NO *
2026-10-05 20:15 Model
ATL -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
3
pts
LA LA
@
PHI PHI *
2026-10-04 13:00 Model
PHI -2.5
Slight favorite
Pending
2
pts
GB GB
@
TB TB *
2026-10-04 13:00 Model
TB -1.5
Toss-up
Pending
1
pts
IND IND *
@
WAS WAS
2026-10-04 09:30 Model
IND -1.5
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.