Projected Final Standings
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of 805 remaining games
Atlantic Hockey Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Army
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9% | 18% | 33% | 20% | 80% | |
| 2 |
Bentley
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 43% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 96% | |
| 3 |
Holy Cross
|
2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 2% | 8% | 15% | 25% | |
| 4 |
Air Force
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1% | 5% | 15% | 21% | 43% | |
| 5 |
Niagara
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1% | 4% | 10% | 17% | 32% | |
| 6 |
RIT
|
1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | |
| 7 |
Robert Morris
|
1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 9% | |
| 8 |
Sacred Heart
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 46% | 35% | 12% | 4% | 97% | |
| 9 |
Canisius
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 11% | |
| 10 |
Long Island
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 |
Stonehill
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Big Ten Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Wisconsin
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9% | 33% | 56% | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 |
Ohio State
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 36% | 37% | |
| 3 |
Minnesota
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 30% | 31% | |
| 4 |
Penn State
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 30% | 31% | |
| 5 |
Michigan
|
0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 77% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 |
Michigan State
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14% | 49% | 36% | 1% | 100% | |
| 7 |
Notre Dame
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
CCHA Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Augustana
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 90% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 |
Bowling Green
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2% | 26% | 45% | 24% | 97% | |
| 3 |
Bemidji State
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 7% | 8% | |
| 4 |
Ferris State
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 |
Lake Superior
|
0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 6 |
Michigan Tech
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7% | 58% | 28% | 7% | 100% | |
| 7 |
Minnesota State
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 7% | 24% | 56% | 88% | |
| 8 |
St. Thomas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 6% | |
| 9 |
Alaska
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 |
Alaska-Anchorage
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 |
Lindenwood
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 |
Northern Michigan
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
ECAC Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Union
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17% | 36% | 25% | 14% | 92% | |
| 2 |
Yale
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 |
Brown
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 |
Clarkson
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 11% | |
| 5 |
Colgate
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 |
Cornell
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 9% | 21% | 34% | 66% | |
| 7 |
Dartmouth
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 30% | 34% | 18% | 90% | |
| 8 |
Harvard
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 |
Princeton
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1% | 4% | 11% | 22% | 38% | |
| 10 |
Quinnipiac
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 100% | |
| 11 |
RPI
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 12 |
St. Lawrence
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Hockey East Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Boston University
|
2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23% | 26% | 24% | 13% | 86% | |
| 2 |
Vermont
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 |
Merrimack
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 24% | 31% | 23% | 12% | 89% | |
| 4 |
Providence
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 47% | 26% | 15% | 7% | 94% | |
| 5 |
Connecticut
|
0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 16% | |
| 6 |
Boston College
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1% | 2% | 7% | 12% | 22% | |
| 7 |
Massachusetts
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 23% | |
| 8 |
Northeastern
|
0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 19% | |
| 9 |
New Hampshire
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 10 |
Maine
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3% | 8% | 14% | 21% | 47% | |
| 11 |
Mass.-Lowell
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
NCHC Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Denver
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 56% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 99% | |
| 2 |
Arizona State
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 3 |
Colorado College
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4% | 11% | 24% | 39% | 79% | |
| 4 |
Miami
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 |
Minnesota Duluth
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 1% | 6% | 21% | 29% | |
| 6 |
St. Cloud State
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | |
| 7 |
North Dakota
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9% | 20% | 38% | 25% | 92% | |
| 8 |
Omaha
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 |
Western Michigan
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 99% |
National Tournament Probabilities
| # | Team | Conference | Proj. Wins | Elo | NPI | P(Tournament) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan
|
Big Ten | 26.8 | 1841 | 60.10 | 100% |
| 2 |
Western Michigan
|
NCHC | 25.5 | 1822 | 59.12 | 100% |
| 3 |
Denver
|
NCHC | 26.2 | 1832 | 58.59 | 99% |
| 4 |
Quinnipiac
|
ECAC | 25.4 | 1697 | 57.70 | 97% |
| 5 |
Michigan State
|
Big Ten | 23.9 | 1804 | 58.18 | 97% |
| 6 |
Wisconsin
|
Big Ten | 23.5 | 1739 | 57.28 | 93% |
| 7 |
Augustana
|
CCHA | 26.3 | 1653 | 56.61 | 90% |
| 8 |
North Dakota
|
NCHC | 23.8 | 1744 | 56.71 | 88% |
| 9 |
Providence
|
Hockey East | 23.5 | 1712 | 56.50 | 84% |
| 10 |
Dartmouth
|
ECAC | 22.0 | 1640 | 55.89 | 76% |
| 11 |
Minnesota Duluth
|
NCHC | 19.0 | 1685 | 55.79 | 76% |
| 12 |
Colorado College
|
NCHC | 22.0 | 1662 | 55.53 | 72% |
| 13 |
Boston University
|
Hockey East | 21.8 | 1681 | 55.46 | 69% |
| 14 |
Merrimack
|
Hockey East | 21.6 | 1660 | 55.02 | 62% |
| 15 |
Northeastern
|
Hockey East | 17.4 | 1609 | 54.47 | 50% |
| 16 |
Cornell
|
ECAC | 20.1 | 1618 | 54.44 | 50% |
| 17 |
Michigan Tech
|
CCHA | 22.2 | 1579 | 54.33 | 47% |
| 18 |
Union
|
ECAC | 22.2 | 1547 | 53.91 | 37% |
| 19 |
Maine
|
Hockey East | 18.8 | 1624 | 53.82 | 36% |
| 20 |
Connecticut
|
Hockey East | 16.9 | 1632 | 53.01 | 22% |
| 21 |
Princeton
|
ECAC | 19.0 | 1528 | 52.93 | 22% |
| 22 |
Boston College
|
Hockey East | 17.0 | 1638 | 52.87 | 20% |
| 23 |
Bentley
|
Atlantic Hockey | 20.9 | 1528 | 52.88 | 19% |
| 24 |
Massachusetts
|
Hockey East | 17.7 | 1631 | 52.65 | 18% |
| 25 |
Bowling Green
|
CCHA | 20.0 | 1540 | 52.63 | 13% |
| 26 |
Minnesota State
|
CCHA | 17.5 | 1565 | 52.47 | 12% |
| 27 |
Sacred Heart
|
Atlantic Hockey | 21.5 | 1510 | 52.40 | 12% |
| 28 |
Ohio State
|
Big Ten | 14.2 | 1589 | 52.03 | 10% |
| 29 |
Minnesota
|
Big Ten | 14.3 | 1589 | 51.78 | 8% |
| 30 |
Harvard
|
ECAC | 14.7 | 1485 | 50.81 | 5% |
| 31 |
Army
|
Atlantic Hockey | 18.5 | 1432 | 51.26 | 5% |
| 32 |
St. Cloud State
|
NCHC | 14.7 | 1539 | 50.89 | 3% |
| 33 |
Arizona State
|
NCHC | 15.2 | 1545 | 50.80 | 2% |
| 34 |
Penn State
|
Big Ten | 14.6 | 1575 | 50.54 | 1% |
| 35 |
Clarkson
|
ECAC | 16.1 | 1489 | 50.19 | 1% |
| 36 |
Vermont
|
Hockey East | 14.1 | 1475 | 49.76 | 1% |
| 37 |
New Hampshire
|
Hockey East | 13.3 | 1498 | 49.98 | 1% |
| 38 |
Omaha
|
NCHC | 12.7 | 1508 | 49.57 | 1% |
| 39 |
Holy Cross
|
Atlantic Hockey | 14.6 | 1430 | 49.68 | 0% |
| 40 |
Air Force
|
Atlantic Hockey | 16.2 | 1413 | 49.23 | 0% |
| 41 |
St. Thomas
|
CCHA | 13.7 | 1519 | 49.02 | 0% |
| 42 |
Alaska
|
CCHA | 11.0 | 1436 | 49.20 | 0% |
| 43 |
Miami
|
NCHC | 13.8 | 1484 | 49.32 | 0% |
| 44 |
Alaska-Anchorage
|
CCHA | 5.5 | 1202 | 42.86 | 0% |
| 45 |
Bemidji State
|
CCHA | 12.9 | 1417 | 48.40 | 0% |
| 46 |
Brown
|
ECAC | 6.8 | 1246 | 43.76 | 0% |
| 47 |
Canisius
|
Atlantic Hockey | 12.9 | 1355 | 47.76 | 0% |
| 48 |
Colgate
|
ECAC | 10.0 | 1362 | 45.11 | 0% |
| 49 |
Ferris State
|
CCHA | 9.1 | 1308 | 46.24 | 0% |
| 50 |
Lake Superior
|
CCHA | 10.5 | 1317 | 46.77 | 0% |
| 51 |
Lindenwood
|
CCHA | 10.1 | 1367 | 47.45 | 0% |
| 52 |
Long Island
|
Atlantic Hockey | 13.1 | 1369 | 47.31 | 0% |
| 53 |
Mass.-Lowell
|
Hockey East | 9.4 | 1420 | 46.27 | 0% |
| 54 |
Niagara
|
Atlantic Hockey | 15.2 | 1368 | 48.56 | 0% |
| 55 |
Northern Michigan
|
CCHA | 7.7 | 1223 | 44.32 | 0% |
| 56 |
Notre Dame
|
Big Ten | 10.1 | 1468 | 47.82 | 0% |
| 57 |
RIT
|
Atlantic Hockey | 10.9 | 1309 | 45.71 | 0% |
| 58 |
RPI
|
ECAC | 14.3 | 1381 | 47.97 | 0% |
| 59 |
Robert Morris
|
Atlantic Hockey | 13.6 | 1361 | 47.15 | 0% |
| 60 |
St. Lawrence
|
ECAC | 7.0 | 1242 | 43.31 | 0% |
| 61 |
Stonehill
|
Atlantic Hockey | 12.1 | 1322 | 45.38 | 0% |
| 62 |
Yale
|
ECAC | 7.7 | 1287 | 45.44 | 0% |