Defense rankings — 2026 Week 2
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF vs MIA | 9.1 | 2.9 – 16.3 | 16.1 | +2.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | PHI @ TEN | 8.9 | 2.6 – 16.1 | 16.4 | +2.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | TB vs CLE | 8.7 | 2.4 – 15.8 | 16.8 | +2.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 4 | BAL vs NO | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.1 | 18.7 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 5 | SEA @ ARI | 7.9 | 1.6 – 15.0 | 18.8 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 6 | LAC vs LV | 7.8 | 1.5 – 15.0 | 18.8 | +1.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 7 | NE vs PIT | 7.7 | 1.4 – 14.8 | 18.8 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 8 | GB @ NYJ | 7.2 | 0.9 – 14.3 | 20.7 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 9 | KC vs IND | 7.2 | 0.9 – 14.3 | 20.5 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 10 | CAR @ ATL | 7.1 | 0.8 – 14.3 | 20.7 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 11 | LA vs NYG | 7.1 | 0.8 – 14.3 | 20.7 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 12 | CHI vs MIN | 6.8 | 0.6 – 14.0 | 21.3 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 13 | HOU vs CIN | 6.7 | 0.4 – 13.8 | 21.6 | +0.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 14 | DEN vs JAX | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.7 | 21.8 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 15 | ARI vs SEA | 6.0 | -0.3 – 13.1 | 22.5 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 16 | PIT @ NE | 5.8 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 23.4 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 17 | DAL vs WAS | 5.8 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 24.2 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 18 | BUF vs DET | 5.8 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 24.6 | -0.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 19 | ATL vs CAR | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.9 | 23.5 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 20 | JAX @ DEN | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.8 | 24.3 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 21 | CIN @ HOU | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.7 | 24.6 | -0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 22 | NYJ vs GB | 5.3 | -0.9 – 12.5 | 24.5 | -0.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 23 | TEN vs PHI | 5.3 | -0.9 – 12.5 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 24 | LV @ LAC | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 25.4 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 25 | MIN @ CHI | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 25.8 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 26 | CLE @ TB | 5.0 | -1.3 – 12.1 | 25.5 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 27 | IND @ KC | 4.8 | -1.5 – 11.9 | 26.6 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 28 | WAS @ DAL | 4.5 | -1.7 – 11.7 | 27.7 | -0.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 29 | NYG @ LA | 4.5 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 30 | NO @ BAL | 4.4 | -1.9 – 11.5 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 31 | DET @ BUF | 3.7 | -2.6 – 10.8 | 30.2 | -1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 32 | MIA @ SF | 3.7 | -2.6 – 10.8 | 29.1 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.