Defense rankings — 2026 Week 2
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC vs LV | 8.7 | 2.5 – 15.9 | 16.7 | +2.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | SF vs MIA | 8.3 | 2.0 – 15.4 | 18.1 | +1.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 3 | GB @ NYJ | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.2 | 18.7 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 4 | PHI @ TEN | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.2 | 18.7 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 5 | TB vs CLE | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.1 | 18.3 | +1.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 6 | LA vs NYG | 7.7 | 1.4 – 14.8 | 19.6 | +1.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 7 | BAL vs NO | 7.5 | 1.3 – 14.7 | 19.7 | +1.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 8 | NE vs PIT | 7.3 | 1.1 – 14.5 | 19.8 | +1.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 9 | KC vs IND | 7.1 | 0.8 – 14.3 | 20.7 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 10 | DEN vs JAX | 7.0 | 0.7 – 14.1 | 20.6 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 11 | CHI vs MIN | 6.7 | 0.4 – 13.8 | 21.6 | +0.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 12 | ATL vs CAR | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.8 | 21.4 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 13 | HOU vs CIN | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.7 | 21.8 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 14 | CAR @ ATL | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.8 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 15 | DAL vs WAS | 6.0 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 23.7 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 16 | JAX @ DEN | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 23.6 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 17 | BUF vs DET | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.8 | 24.5 | -0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 18 | CIN @ HOU | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.8 | 24.3 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 19 | MIN @ CHI | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.7 | 24.6 | -0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 20 | PIT @ NE | 5.5 | -0.7 – 12.7 | 24.4 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 21 | CLE @ TB | 5.2 | -1.0 – 12.4 | 24.9 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 22 | NYJ vs GB | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 24.6 | -0.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 23 | TEN vs PHI | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 24.6 | -0.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 24 | DET @ BUF | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.8 | 27.5 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 25 | LV @ LAC | 4.6 | -1.7 – 11.7 | 26.5 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 26 | IND @ KC | 4.5 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 27 | NO @ BAL | 4.4 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 28 | WAS @ DAL | 4.3 | -1.9 – 11.5 | 28.2 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 29 | MIA @ SF | 3.8 | -2.5 – 10.9 | 29.0 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 30 | NYG @ LA | 3.7 | -2.6 – 10.9 | 29.4 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.