Defense rankings — 2026 Week 3

Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Defense ProjFloor–ceiling Pts allowedfrom tiers SacksTurnovers
1 SEA @ WAS 9.1 2.9 – 16.3 16.1 +2.2 3.0 1.5
2 KC @ MIA 8.6 2.3 – 15.7 17.8 +1.8 2.9 1.6
3 NYG vs TEN 7.9 1.6 – 15.0 18.0 +1.7 2.8 1.3
4 CIN @ PIT 7.5 1.2 – 14.7 19.7 +1.2 2.7 1.4
5 PHI @ CHI 7.5 1.2 – 14.7 19.7 +1.2 2.7 1.4
6 CAR @ CLE 7.5 1.2 – 14.6 19.8 +1.2 2.7 1.4
7 GB vs ATL 7.3 1.1 – 14.5 19.8 +1.2 2.6 1.4
8 HOU @ IND 7.2 0.9 – 14.4 20.3 +1.0 2.6 1.4
9 SF vs ARI 7.2 0.9 – 14.3 20.7 +0.9 2.6 1.4
10 NO vs LV 7.1 0.8 – 14.2 20.3 +1.0 2.6 1.3
11 MIN @ TB 7.1 0.8 – 14.2 20.8 +0.9 2.6 1.4
12 TEN @ NYG 7.0 0.7 – 14.1 20.4 +1.0 2.6 1.3
13 DET vs NYJ 6.9 0.6 – 14.1 21.4 +0.8 2.5 1.4
14 BUF vs LAC 6.8 0.5 – 13.9 21.9 +0.6 2.5 1.4
15 DEN vs LA 6.6 0.3 – 13.8 21.4 +0.8 2.5 1.3
16 JAX vs NE 6.5 0.2 – 13.6 22.0 +0.6 2.5 1.3
17 IND vs HOU 6.3 -0.0 – 13.4 22.0 +0.6 2.4 1.2
18 LA @ DEN 6.2 -0.1 – 13.3 22.8 +0.4 2.4 1.3
19 TB vs MIN 6.1 -0.2 – 13.2 22.5 +0.5 2.4 1.2
20 CLE vs CAR 6.0 -0.2 – 13.2 22.5 +0.5 2.4 1.2
21 LV @ NO 5.8 -0.5 – 12.9 23.9 +0.1 2.3 1.2
22 PIT vs CIN 5.7 -0.6 – 12.8 23.5 +0.2 2.3 1.2
23 BAL @ DAL 5.7 -0.6 – 12.8 25.3 -0.2 2.3 1.4
24 CHI vs PHI 5.7 -0.6 – 12.8 23.5 +0.2 2.3 1.2
25 ATL @ GB 5.5 -0.7 – 12.7 24.4 +0.0 2.3 1.2
26 NE @ JAX 5.4 -0.9 – 12.6 25.0 -0.1 2.2 1.3
27 WAS vs SEA 4.9 -1.4 – 12.0 25.2 -0.2 2.1 1.1
28 ARI @ SF 4.1 -2.1 – 11.3 28.4 -0.9 1.9 1.1
29 DAL vs BAL 4.1 -2.2 – 11.2 28.6 -0.9 1.9 1.2
30 NYJ @ DET 4.1 -2.2 – 11.2 28.6 -1.0 1.9 1.2
31 LAC @ BUF 4.0 -2.3 – 11.1 29.1 -1.1 1.9 1.2
32 MIA vs KC 3.8 -2.5 – 10.9 28.4 -0.9 1.9 1.0
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are the league mean — nothing forecasts them (fitted 2019-2025). Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman 0.295, MAE 4.27 against a 4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079 over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.