Defense rankings — 2026 Week 3
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF vs ARI | 8.5 | 2.2 – 15.7 | 17.6 | +1.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | DET vs NYJ | 8.2 | 1.9 – 15.3 | 18.2 | +1.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 3 | KC @ MIA | 8.2 | 1.9 – 15.3 | 18.6 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 4 | CAR @ CLE | 7.6 | 1.3 – 14.7 | 19.3 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 5 | GB vs ATL | 7.5 | 1.3 – 14.7 | 19.7 | +1.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 6 | NO vs LV | 7.3 | 1.0 – 14.4 | 19.8 | +1.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 7 | LA @ DEN | 6.9 | 0.6 – 14.1 | 21.4 | +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 8 | NYG vs TEN | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.1 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 9 | CLE vs CAR | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.7 | 21.0 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 10 | HOU @ IND | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.7 | 22.2 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 11 | TB vs MIN | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 12 | CIN @ PIT | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.6 | 22.7 | +0.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 13 | BUF vs LAC | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 23.0 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 14 | CHI vs PHI | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.8 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 15 | MIN @ TB | 6.0 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 23.3 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 16 | LV @ NO | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.1 | 23.4 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 17 | BAL @ DAL | 5.8 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 24.6 | -0.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 18 | PHI @ CHI | 5.7 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 24.3 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 19 | TEN @ NYG | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.9 | 24.1 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 20 | IND vs HOU | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 21 | PIT vs CIN | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.6 | 24.4 | +0.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 22 | DEN vs LA | 5.3 | -1.0 – 12.4 | 24.7 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 23 | LAC @ BUF | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 26.0 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 24 | DAL vs BAL | 4.5 | -1.8 – 11.7 | 27.3 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 25 | MIA vs KC | 4.5 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 26.6 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 26 | ATL @ GB | 4.4 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 27 | NYJ @ DET | 4.2 | -2.1 – 11.3 | 28.0 | -0.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 28 | ARI @ SF | 3.6 | -2.7 – 10.7 | 29.5 | -1.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.