Defense rankings — 2026 Week 4
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN vs MIA | 8.1 | 1.8 – 15.2 | 18.2 | +1.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2 | CHI vs NYJ | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.1 | 18.7 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 3 | KC @ LV | 7.8 | 1.6 – 15.0 | 19.2 | +1.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 4 | PIT @ CLE | 7.6 | 1.4 – 14.8 | 19.3 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 5 | BAL vs TEN | 7.6 | 1.3 – 14.8 | 19.6 | +1.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 6 | NYG vs ARI | 7.6 | 1.3 – 14.7 | 19.5 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 7 | DET @ CAR | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.7 | 22.4 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 8 | NO vs ATL | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.7 | 21.8 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 9 | SF vs DEN | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 10 | LA @ PHI | 6.2 | -0.0 – 13.4 | 23.2 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 11 | GB @ TB | 6.2 | -0.0 – 13.4 | 23.2 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 12 | HOU vs DAL | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.8 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 13 | CLE vs PIT | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.0 | +0.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 14 | ATL @ NO | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.8 | 24.3 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 15 | CIN vs JAX | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.7 | 24.7 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 16 | WAS vs IND | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.7 | 24.8 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 17 | DEN @ SF | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.7 | 24.8 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 18 | DAL @ HOU | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.5 | 25.3 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 19 | PHI vs LA | 5.3 | -1.0 – 12.5 | 24.9 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 20 | TB vs GB | 5.3 | -1.0 – 12.5 | 24.9 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 21 | IND @ WAS | 5.1 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 26.2 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 22 | LV vs KC | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 23 | CAR vs DET | 5.0 | -1.3 – 12.1 | 25.7 | -0.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 24 | MIA @ MIN | 4.9 | -1.4 – 12.0 | 26.0 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 25 | JAX @ CIN | 4.8 | -1.5 – 11.9 | 27.2 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 26 | ARI @ NYG | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.8 | 26.7 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 27 | NYJ @ CHI | 4.4 | -1.9 – 11.5 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 28 | TEN @ BAL | 4.1 | -2.2 – 11.2 | 28.4 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.