Defense rankings — 2026 Week 4

Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Defense ProjFloor–ceiling Pts allowedfrom tiers SacksTurnovers
1 MIN vs MIA 9.6 3.4 – 16.8 14.5 +2.8 3.1 1.5
2 BAL vs TEN 9.2 3.0 – 16.4 15.7 +2.4 3.0 1.5
3 GB @ TB 8.1 1.8 – 15.2 18.1 +1.7 2.8 1.4
4 SEA vs LAC 8.1 1.8 – 15.2 18.0 +1.7 2.8 1.4
5 PIT @ CLE 8.0 1.7 – 15.1 18.3 +1.6 2.8 1.4
6 LA @ PHI 7.5 1.2 – 14.7 19.7 +1.2 2.7 1.4
7 IND @ WAS 7.1 0.8 – 14.2 21.1 +0.8 2.6 1.4
8 CHI vs NYJ 7.1 0.8 – 14.2 20.3 +1.0 2.6 1.3
9 ARI @ NYG 7.0 0.7 – 14.1 21.2 +0.8 2.6 1.4
10 KC @ LV 6.9 0.7 – 14.1 21.6 +0.7 2.6 1.4
11 BUF vs NE 6.9 0.6 – 14.1 21.4 +0.8 2.5 1.4
12 CLE vs PIT 6.5 0.2 – 13.7 21.1 +0.8 2.5 1.2
13 TB vs GB 6.4 0.1 – 13.6 21.3 +0.8 2.5 1.2
14 HOU vs DAL 6.2 -0.1 – 13.3 23.0 +0.3 2.4 1.3
15 SF vs DEN 6.2 -0.1 – 13.3 23.0 +0.3 2.4 1.3
16 DET @ CAR 6.1 -0.1 – 13.3 24.0 +0.1 2.4 1.4
17 NO vs ATL 6.0 -0.3 – 13.1 23.3 +0.3 2.3 1.3
18 NYJ @ CHI 5.8 -0.5 – 12.9 23.9 +0.1 2.3 1.2
19 PHI vs LA 5.7 -0.6 – 12.8 23.5 +0.2 2.3 1.2
20 CIN vs JAX 5.6 -0.7 – 12.7 24.7 -0.1 2.2 1.3
21 ATL @ NO 5.6 -0.7 – 12.7 24.7 -0.1 2.3 1.3
22 NYG vs ARI 5.6 -0.7 – 12.7 24.0 +0.1 2.3 1.2
23 LAC @ SEA 5.1 -1.1 – 12.3 25.2 -0.2 2.2 1.2
24 DAL @ HOU 5.1 -1.2 – 12.2 26.0 -0.4 2.2 1.3
25 DEN @ SF 5.1 -1.2 – 12.2 26.0 -0.4 2.2 1.3
26 MIA @ MIN 5.1 -1.2 – 12.2 24.8 -0.1 2.2 1.1
27 WAS vs IND 4.8 -1.5 – 12.0 26.0 -0.4 2.1 1.1
28 JAX @ CIN 4.8 -1.5 – 11.9 27.2 -0.7 2.1 1.3
29 LV vs KC 4.7 -1.6 – 11.8 26.4 -0.5 2.0 1.1
30 TEN @ BAL 4.2 -2.1 – 11.3 27.6 -0.7 2.0 1.1
31 NE @ BUF 4.1 -2.2 – 11.2 28.6 -1.0 1.9 1.2
32 CAR vs DET 3.9 -2.4 – 11.1 28.9 -1.0 1.9 1.1
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are the league mean — nothing forecasts them (fitted 2019-2025). Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman 0.295, MAE 4.27 against a 4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079 over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.