Defense rankings — 2026 Week 5
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET @ ARI | 7.7 | 1.4 – 14.8 | 20.0 | +1.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | NYJ vs CLE | 7.5 | 1.3 – 14.7 | 18.9 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | HOU @ TEN | 7.4 | 1.1 – 14.5 | 20.2 | +1.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 4 | CIN @ MIA | 7.0 | 0.7 – 14.1 | 21.8 | +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 5 | BAL @ ATL | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 22.1 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 6 | MIN @ NO | 6.7 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.7 | +0.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 7 | LAC vs DEN | 6.7 | 0.4 – 13.8 | 21.3 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 8 | CLE @ NYJ | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.8 | 21.4 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 9 | PHI @ JAX | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.7 | 22.2 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 10 | PIT vs IND | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.8 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 11 | WAS vs NYG | 6.0 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 23.3 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 12 | GB vs CHI | 6.0 | -0.3 – 13.2 | 23.5 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 13 | DEN @ LAC | 5.8 | -0.5 – 13.0 | 23.8 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 14 | NO vs MIN | 5.8 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 23.4 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 15 | DAL vs TB | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.8 | 24.7 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 16 | JAX vs PHI | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 17 | TEN vs HOU | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.6 | 24.0 | +0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 18 | LA vs BUF | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.5 | 25.4 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 19 | IND @ PIT | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.5 | 25.3 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 20 | NYG @ WAS | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.8 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 21 | CHI @ GB | 5.0 | -1.3 – 12.1 | 26.5 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 22 | ATL vs BAL | 4.5 | -1.8 – 11.7 | 26.9 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 23 | TB @ DAL | 4.4 | -1.9 – 11.6 | 28.2 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 24 | BUF @ LA | 4.4 | -1.9 – 11.5 | 28.4 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 25 | MIA vs CIN | 4.0 | -2.2 – 11.2 | 28.2 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 26 | ARI vs DET | 3.7 | -2.6 – 10.8 | 29.0 | -1.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.