Defense rankings — 2026 Week 5
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU @ TEN | 9.2 | 2.9 – 16.3 | 15.7 | +2.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2 | JAX vs PHI | 8.4 | 2.1 – 15.6 | 17.3 | +1.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | CIN @ MIA | 8.0 | 1.8 – 15.2 | 18.9 | +1.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 4 | NYJ vs CLE | 7.7 | 1.4 – 14.9 | 18.4 | +1.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 5 | DEN @ LAC | 7.5 | 1.2 – 14.7 | 19.7 | +1.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 6 | DAL vs TB | 7.5 | 1.2 – 14.6 | 20.1 | +1.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 7 | MIN @ NO | 7.5 | 1.2 – 14.6 | 19.8 | +1.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 8 | WAS vs NYG | 7.4 | 1.2 – 14.6 | 19.4 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 9 | PIT vs IND | 7.3 | 1.0 – 14.5 | 19.6 | +1.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 10 | ATL vs BAL | 6.9 | 0.7 – 14.1 | 20.8 | +0.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 11 | CLE @ NYJ | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 20.9 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 12 | NE vs LV | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.3 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 13 | SEA vs SF | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 22.0 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 14 | CHI @ GB | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.6 | 22.7 | +0.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 15 | IND @ PIT | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.6 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 16 | NYG @ WAS | 6.1 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 22.9 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 17 | NO vs MIN | 6.0 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 22.5 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 18 | DET @ ARI | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 24.9 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 19 | TEN vs HOU | 5.8 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 22.7 | +0.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 20 | LAC vs DEN | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.8 | 23.5 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 21 | BAL @ ATL | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 24.3 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 22 | GB vs CHI | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.6 | 24.4 | +0.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 23 | LV @ NE | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.6 | 24.8 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 24 | SF @ SEA | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.6 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 25 | LA vs BUF | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 26.1 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 26 | PHI @ JAX | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 27 | MIA vs CIN | 4.6 | -1.7 – 11.7 | 26.3 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 28 | BUF @ LA | 4.0 | -2.3 – 11.1 | 29.7 | -1.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 29 | TB @ DAL | 3.6 | -2.7 – 10.7 | 29.9 | -1.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 30 | ARI vs DET | 3.3 | -3.0 – 10.4 | 30.8 | -1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.