Defense rankings — 2026 Week 6
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC vs LAC | 8.4 | 2.1 – 15.6 | 17.3 | +1.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 2 | NE vs NYJ | 8.1 | 1.8 – 15.2 | 18.2 | +1.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 3 | PIT @ TB | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.1 | 18.3 | +1.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 4 | BAL @ CLE | 7.9 | 1.6 – 15.1 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 5 | CAR @ PHI | 7.9 | 1.6 – 15.1 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 6 | LA vs ARI | 7.9 | 1.6 – 15.0 | 19.5 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 7 | IND vs TEN | 7.8 | 1.5 – 15.0 | 18.8 | +1.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 8 | SEA @ DEN | 7.6 | 1.4 – 14.8 | 19.3 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 9 | JAX vs HOU | 7.0 | 0.8 – 14.2 | 20.4 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 10 | SF vs WAS | 6.7 | 0.4 – 13.8 | 22.1 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 11 | TB vs PIT | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.7 | 21.1 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 12 | NO @ NYG | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.6 | 22.7 | +0.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 13 | CLE vs BAL | 6.2 | -0.0 – 13.4 | 21.8 | +0.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 14 | PHI vs CAR | 6.2 | -0.0 – 13.4 | 21.8 | +0.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 15 | DEN vs SEA | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.0 | +0.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 16 | BUF @ LV | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 24.0 | +0.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 17 | HOU @ JAX | 6.1 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 22.9 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 18 | CHI @ ATL | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 25.1 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 19 | NYG vs NO | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.6 | 24.4 | +0.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 20 | DAL @ GB | 5.3 | -0.9 – 12.5 | 26.1 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 21 | LAC @ KC | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 22 | TEN @ IND | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 25.4 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 23 | NYJ @ NE | 4.9 | -1.4 – 12.0 | 26.0 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 24 | ATL vs CHI | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.9 | 26.8 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 25 | GB vs DAL | 4.4 | -1.9 – 11.6 | 27.8 | -0.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 26 | WAS @ SF | 3.7 | -2.6 – 10.8 | 29.8 | -1.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 27 | LV vs BUF | 3.6 | -2.7 – 10.7 | 29.9 | -1.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 28 | ARI @ LA | 2.7 | -3.6 – 9.8 | 32.4 | -1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.