Defense rankings — 2026 Week 6
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA vs ARI | 8.8 | 2.5 – 16.0 | 17.0 | +2.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | BAL @ CLE | 7.9 | 1.6 – 15.1 | 19.1 | +1.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 3 | PHI vs CAR | 7.8 | 1.5 – 15.0 | 18.8 | +1.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 4 | BUF @ LV | 7.4 | 1.1 – 14.5 | 20.6 | +1.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 5 | JAX vs HOU | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 20.9 | +0.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 6 | NYG vs NO | 6.7 | 0.4 – 13.8 | 21.3 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 7 | CHI @ ATL | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.7 | 22.4 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 8 | IND vs TEN | 6.4 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 9 | SF vs WAS | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.6 | 22.7 | +0.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 10 | HOU @ JAX | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 11 | KC vs LAC | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 12 | TB vs PIT | 6.3 | 0.0 – 13.4 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 13 | PIT @ TB | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 23.8 | +0.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 14 | NO @ NYG | 5.8 | -0.5 – 13.0 | 23.8 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 15 | GB vs DAL | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.8 | 24.5 | -0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 16 | LAC @ KC | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.7 | 24.8 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 17 | TEN @ IND | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.8 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 18 | CAR @ PHI | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 25.4 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 19 | ATL vs CHI | 5.0 | -1.3 – 12.1 | 25.7 | -0.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 20 | CLE vs BAL | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.8 | 26.0 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 21 | DAL @ GB | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.8 | 27.5 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 22 | WAS @ SF | 4.3 | -2.0 – 11.4 | 28.3 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 23 | LV vs BUF | 4.2 | -2.0 – 11.4 | 27.5 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 24 | ARI @ LA | 3.0 | -3.2 – 10.2 | 31.0 | -1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.