Defense rankings — 2026 Week 7
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN @ ARI | 8.3 | 2.0 – 15.5 | 18.1 | +1.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | LA @ LV | 7.8 | 1.5 – 14.9 | 19.6 | +1.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 3 | HOU vs NYG | 7.6 | 1.3 – 14.7 | 19.3 | +1.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 4 | TEN vs CLE | 7.4 | 1.1 – 14.5 | 19.4 | +1.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 5 | PIT @ NO | 7.3 | 1.0 – 14.4 | 20.2 | +1.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 6 | NYJ vs MIA | 7.2 | 0.9 – 14.3 | 19.9 | +1.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 7 | SF @ ATL | 6.9 | 0.7 – 14.1 | 21.6 | +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 8 | TB @ CAR | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.7 | 22.2 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 9 | CLE @ TEN | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 10 | MIN vs IND | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 11 | MIA @ NYJ | 6.3 | 0.0 – 13.4 | 22.4 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 12 | PHI vs DAL | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 23.0 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 13 | NO vs PIT | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.0 | 23.0 | +0.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 14 | BAL vs CIN | 5.8 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 24.2 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 15 | DET vs GB | 5.7 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 24.2 | +0.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 16 | CAR vs TB | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 17 | IND @ MIN | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.7 | 24.8 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 18 | NYG @ HOU | 5.3 | -1.0 – 12.5 | 24.9 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 19 | DAL @ PHI | 5.1 | -1.2 – 12.2 | 26.0 | -0.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 20 | GB @ DET | 4.9 | -1.4 – 12.1 | 26.7 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 21 | ATL vs SF | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.8 | 26.4 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 22 | ARI vs DEN | 4.6 | -1.7 – 11.8 | 26.1 | -0.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 23 | CIN @ BAL | 4.5 | -1.7 – 11.7 | 27.7 | -0.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 24 | LV vs LA | 4.2 | -2.1 – 11.3 | 27.5 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.