Defense rankings — 2026 Week 8
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE @ MIA | 8.2 | 1.9 – 15.3 | 18.6 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | CIN vs TEN | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.1 | 18.9 | +1.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 3 | PIT vs CLE | 8.0 | 1.7 – 15.1 | 17.9 | +1.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 4 | LA vs LAC | 7.9 | 1.7 – 15.1 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 5 | WAS vs PHI | 7.6 | 1.3 – 14.8 | 18.9 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 6 | JAX vs IND | 7.5 | 1.3 – 14.7 | 19.7 | +1.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 7 | KC @ DEN | 7.2 | 0.9 – 14.4 | 20.3 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 8 | CLE @ PIT | 6.6 | 0.3 – 13.7 | 21.4 | +0.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 9 | DET vs MIN | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 22.0 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 10 | SEA vs CHI | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 22.0 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 11 | NYJ vs LV | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 12 | TB vs ATL | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 13 | GB vs CAR | 6.4 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 14 | DEN vs KC | 6.3 | -0.0 – 13.4 | 22.0 | +0.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 15 | PHI @ WAS | 6.2 | -0.0 – 13.4 | 22.4 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 16 | DAL vs ARI | 6.2 | -0.1 – 13.3 | 23.6 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 17 | LV @ NYJ | 6.0 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 23.3 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 18 | ATL @ TB | 6.0 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 23.3 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 19 | BUF vs BAL | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.6 | 25.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 20 | MIN @ DET | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.6 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 21 | CHI @ SEA | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.6 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 22 | CAR @ GB | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.8 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 23 | LAC @ LA | 5.0 | -1.3 – 12.1 | 25.7 | -0.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 24 | MIA vs NE | 4.5 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 26.6 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 25 | IND @ JAX | 4.4 | -1.8 – 11.6 | 27.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 26 | BAL @ BUF | 4.3 | -2.0 – 11.4 | 28.7 | -1.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 27 | TEN @ CIN | 3.8 | -2.5 – 10.9 | 29.2 | -1.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 28 | ARI @ DAL | 3.6 | -2.6 – 10.8 | 30.3 | -1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.