Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tom Brady — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.083
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.069
Dropbacks
828
Turnover EPA
-56.7
WPA
+1.79
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 29 | +0.126 | +0.036 | +0.090 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.11 | +3.3 |
| 2 | NO | 35 | +0.145 | +0.069 | +0.076 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.45 | -13.1 |
| 3 | GB | 46 | +0.023 | +0.003 | +0.020 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.30 | +4.9 |
| 4 | KC | 53 | +0.174 | +0.179 | -0.006 | +9.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 1 | -5.8 | -0.06 | +6.0 |
| 5 | ATL | 53 | +0.191 | +0.265 | -0.074 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.39 | +0.7 |
| 6 | PIT | 42 | +0.164 | +0.187 | -0.023 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.07 | +0.8 |
| 7 | CAR | 50 | -0.053 | -0.048 | -0.005 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.06 | -1.9 |
| 8 | BAL | 46 | +0.082 | +0.118 | -0.036 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.02 | -4.5 |
| 9 | LA | 58 | -0.075 | -0.080 | +0.005 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.9 | +0.25 | -5.4 |
| 10 | SEA | 29 | +0.496 | +0.528 | -0.032 | +14.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | +10.4 |
| 12 | CLE | 46 | -0.000 | -0.037 | +0.037 | -0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.20 | +1.6 |
| 13 | NO | 55 | +0.082 | +0.008 | +0.074 | +4.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.47 | -2.0 |
| 14 | SF | 55 | -0.140 | -0.172 | +0.032 | -7.7 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | -1.4 |
| 15 | CIN | 46 | +0.117 | +0.098 | +0.019 | +5.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.6 | 1 | -4.8 | -0.03 | +5.5 |
| 16 | ARI | 48 | -0.054 | -0.039 | -0.015 | -2.6 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -6.7 |
| 17 | CAR | 50 | +0.354 | +0.349 | +0.005 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.53 | +12.2 |
| 18 | ATL | 17 | +0.094 | +0.176 | -0.082 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +6.8 |
| 19 | DAL | 70 | +0.037 | -0.051 | +0.088 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.19 | -13.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.