Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Flacco — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.072
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.070
Dropbacks
263
Turnover EPA
-67.1
WPA
+0.20
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | LA | 46 | -0.194 | -0.169 | -0.025 | -8.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.01 | -8.9 |
| 14 | JAX | 46 | -0.044 | -0.036 | -0.008 | -2.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 1 | -5.6 | +0.01 | -7.4 |
| 15 | CHI | 48 | -0.426 | -0.362 | -0.064 | -20.5 | 3 / 0 | -21.6 | 4 | -7.7 | -0.25 | -2.1 |
| 16 | HOU | 43 | +0.489 | +0.467 | +0.022 | +21.0 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +5.5 |
| 17 | NYJ | 30 | +0.297 | +0.207 | +0.090 | +8.9 | 1 / 0 | -9.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.08 | -0.6 |
| 19 | HOU | 50 | -0.349 | -0.355 | +0.006 | -17.4 | 2 / 0 | -16.7 | 4 | -7.3 | -0.03 | +5.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.