Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Flacco — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.022
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.008
Dropbacks
267
Turnover EPA
-49.2
WPA
-0.45
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PIT | 28 | +0.300 | +0.277 | +0.023 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +5.1 |
| 5 | JAX | 48 | +0.157 | +0.217 | -0.059 | +7.6 | 0 / 1 | -3.5 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.02 | +8.5 |
| 6 | TEN | 38 | +0.017 | +0.041 | -0.024 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | -4.2 |
| 9 | MIN | 30 | -0.256 | -0.293 | +0.037 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.18 | -10.5 |
| 10 | BUF | 39 | -0.341 | -0.319 | -0.022 | -13.3 | 3 / 1 | -23.3 | 4 | -12.9 | -0.45 | +6.4 |
| 17 | NYG | 41 | +0.126 | +0.177 | -0.050 | +5.2 | 2 / 1 | -13.4 | 2 | -5.7 | +0.13 | +7.7 |
| 18 | JAX | 43 | -0.155 | -0.086 | -0.069 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.03 | -7.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.