Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Joe Flacco — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.108
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.095
Dropbacks
432
Turnover EPA
-68.4
WPA
-1.21
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 47 | -0.104 | -0.039 | -0.065 | -4.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.63 | +2.4 |
| 2 | BAL | 47 | -0.575 | -0.569 | -0.006 | -27.0 | 1 / 1 | -15.6 | 2 | -9.3 | -0.32 | -3.1 |
| 3 | GB | 37 | -0.249 | -0.248 | -0.001 | -9.2 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.21 | -3.4 |
| 4 | DET | 37 | -0.529 | -0.539 | +0.010 | -19.6 | 2 / 1 | -15.9 | 3 | -7.1 | -0.19 | -15.2 |
| 6 | GB | 45 | +0.153 | +0.145 | +0.009 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.05 | +4.7 |
| 7 | PIT | 49 | +0.315 | +0.309 | +0.006 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.63 | +1.6 |
| 8 | NYJ | 35 | -0.017 | +0.091 | -0.108 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.26 | -8.0 |
| 9 | CHI | 51 | +0.334 | +0.328 | +0.006 | +17.0 | 2 / 1 | -11.0 | 3 | -8.7 | +0.59 | +2.8 |
| 11 | PIT | 41 | -0.234 | -0.228 | -0.007 | -9.6 | 1 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.23 | -9.6 |
| 12 | NE | 37 | -0.362 | -0.386 | +0.024 | -13.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.7 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.63 | -7.0 |
| 16 | MIA | 1 | -1.011 | -0.978 | -0.033 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +24.5 |
| 17 | ARI | 5 | -0.147 | -0.084 | -0.062 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +0.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.