Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Matthew Stafford — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.236
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.234
Dropbacks
741
Turnover EPA
-58.5
WPA
+5.77
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 32 | +0.306 | +0.190 | +0.116 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | +0.16 | +5.4 |
| 2 | TEN | 34 | +0.226 | +0.288 | -0.061 | +7.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.42 | +10.8 |
| 3 | PHI | 34 | +0.012 | -0.073 | +0.085 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.03 | -5.5 |
| 4 | IND | 43 | +0.317 | +0.336 | -0.020 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.83 | +5.4 |
| 5 | SF | 47 | +0.294 | +0.327 | -0.033 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.78 | -3.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 28 | +0.040 | +0.034 | +0.006 | +1.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.9 | 2 | -10.0 | +0.08 | +0.7 |
| 7 | JAX | 33 | +0.289 | +0.266 | +0.023 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +4.2 |
| 9 | NO | 34 | +0.381 | +0.348 | +0.033 | +13.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.20 | +12.7 |
| 10 | SF | 37 | +0.585 | +0.612 | -0.026 | +21.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.36 | +10.6 |
| 11 | SEA | 28 | -0.075 | -0.145 | +0.069 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -16.6 |
| 12 | TB | 36 | +0.192 | +0.228 | -0.037 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +4.7 |
| 13 | CAR | 30 | -0.205 | -0.117 | -0.088 | -6.1 | 2 / 1 | -18.1 | 2 | -6.6 | -0.08 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ARI | 31 | +0.435 | +0.497 | -0.062 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +4.1 |
| 15 | DET | 40 | +0.234 | +0.206 | +0.028 | +9.4 | 1 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.21 | -0.6 |
| 16 | SEA | 49 | +0.618 | +0.533 | +0.085 | +30.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.96 | -2.7 |
| 17 | ATL | 41 | -0.069 | -0.067 | -0.002 | -2.8 | 3 / 0 | -14.3 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.26 | -3.1 |
| 18 | ARI | 40 | +0.330 | +0.395 | -0.065 | +13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.55 | -1.9 |
| 19 | CAR | 43 | +0.034 | +0.116 | -0.082 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.47 | -4.3 |
| 20 | CHI | 46 | +0.031 | +0.032 | -0.001 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | +0.43 | -11.1 |
| 21 | SEA | 35 | +0.546 | +0.462 | +0.084 | +19.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.18 | +6.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.