Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Matthew Stafford — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.124
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.118
Dropbacks
288
Turnover EPA
-30.7
WPA
+0.93
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 25 | -0.254 | -0.224 | -0.029 | -6.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -4.7 |
| 2 | NYG | 31 | +0.606 | +0.596 | +0.010 | +18.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.18 | +7.3 |
| 3 | DEN | 57 | +0.074 | -0.020 | +0.094 | +4.2 | 2 / 0 | -11.4 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.36 | +0.2 |
| 4 | PHI | 52 | +0.045 | +0.021 | +0.024 | +2.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.10 | -2.5 |
| 5 | BUF | 56 | +0.353 | +0.330 | +0.023 | +19.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.92 | +1.3 |
| 6 | ARI | 37 | -0.181 | -0.069 | -0.112 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.04 | +4.2 |
| 7 | LV | 30 | +0.125 | +0.174 | -0.049 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.18 | +7.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.