Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Andy Dalton — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.130
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.113
Dropbacks
168
Turnover EPA
-31.8
WPA
-0.10
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 1 | -0.599 | -0.621 | +0.022 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -71.0 |
| 3 | LV | 40 | +0.327 | +0.309 | +0.019 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.44 | -2.5 |
| 4 | CIN | 40 | +0.058 | +0.077 | -0.019 | +2.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -2.5 |
| 5 | CHI | 31 | -0.412 | -0.403 | -0.008 | -12.8 | 1 / 0 | -1.3 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.35 | +0.1 |
| 6 | ATL | 38 | -0.165 | -0.129 | -0.035 | -6.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +2.4 |
| 7 | WAS | 18 | -0.982 | -0.915 | -0.068 | -17.7 | 2 / 0 | -14.7 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.30 | -0.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.