Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Russell Wilson — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.125
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.106
Dropbacks
538
Turnover EPA
-55.3
WPA
-2.48
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 44 | +0.312 | +0.345 | -0.032 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.43 | +7.8 |
| 2 | HOU | 34 | -0.011 | +0.009 | -0.020 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.32 | -12.6 |
| 3 | SF | 38 | -0.279 | -0.310 | +0.030 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.39 | -4.9 |
| 4 | LV | 28 | -0.115 | -0.037 | -0.079 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.08 | +0.3 |
| 5 | IND | 43 | -0.320 | -0.302 | -0.017 | -13.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.78 | -8.4 |
| 6 | LAC | 32 | -0.200 | -0.213 | +0.013 | -6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.7 | -0.50 | -4.9 |
| 8 | JAX | 32 | +0.029 | +0.086 | -0.058 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.05 | +3.5 |
| 10 | TEN | 48 | -0.134 | -0.131 | -0.003 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.9 | 6 | -9.0 | -0.17 | -10.0 |
| 11 | LV | 34 | -0.033 | +0.043 | -0.076 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.30 | +16.6 |
| 12 | CAR | 38 | -0.386 | -0.373 | -0.012 | -14.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 3 | -7.4 | -0.31 | -1.2 |
| 13 | BAL | 24 | -0.003 | +0.033 | -0.037 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.03 | +16.0 |
| 14 | KC | 42 | -0.178 | -0.166 | -0.012 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -7.9 | 6 | -9.8 | -0.23 | -6.6 |
| 16 | LA | 33 | -0.272 | -0.269 | -0.003 | -9.0 | 3 / 0 | -13.5 | 6 | -9.2 | -0.18 | -5.7 |
| 17 | KC | 42 | -0.314 | -0.298 | -0.016 | -13.2 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 4 | -9.0 | -0.61 | -0.5 |
| 18 | LAC | 26 | +0.176 | +0.156 | +0.021 | +4.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.15 | +1.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.