Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kirk Cousins — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.123
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.115
Dropbacks
326
Turnover EPA
-46.2
WPA
+0.19
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 46 | -0.021 | +0.007 | -0.028 | -1.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 2 | -7.0 | +0.07 | +5.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 46 | +0.391 | +0.380 | +0.011 | +18.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 2 | -7.2 | +0.01 | +8.2 |
| 3 | LAC | 54 | +0.015 | +0.026 | -0.011 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -7.4 | -0.37 | +0.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 21 | -0.534 | -0.518 | -0.016 | -11.2 | 2 / 0 | -16.4 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.33 | +2.8 |
| 5 | KC | 49 | +0.114 | +0.054 | +0.060 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.05 | -3.4 |
| 6 | CHI | 33 | -0.248 | -0.187 | -0.061 | -8.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.0 | 2 | -5.4 | -0.04 | +1.3 |
| 7 | SF | 44 | +0.373 | +0.297 | +0.077 | +16.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.49 | +9.5 |
| 8 | GB | 33 | +0.592 | +0.591 | +0.001 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.41 | +11.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.