Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Geno Smith — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.008
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.016
Dropbacks
107
Turnover EPA
-7.9
WPA
-0.48
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | LA | 17 | +0.359 | +0.258 | +0.102 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +0.7 |
| 6 | PIT | 36 | -0.187 | -0.234 | +0.047 | -6.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 5 | -11.5 | -0.43 | +0.5 |
| 7 | NO | 27 | -0.047 | -0.146 | +0.099 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.0 | -0.29 | -1.4 |
| 8 | JAX | 27 | +0.102 | +0.234 | -0.132 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | +0.17 | +26.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.