Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Teddy Bridgewater — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.098
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.124
Dropbacks
460
Turnover EPA
-26.7
WPA
+0.64
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 38 | +0.623 | +0.614 | +0.008 | +23.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.67 | +15.4 |
| 2 | JAX | 37 | +0.110 | +0.242 | -0.132 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.19 | +14.7 |
| 3 | NYJ | 27 | +0.339 | +0.442 | -0.103 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.06 | +12.7 |
| 4 | BAL | 18 | -0.409 | -0.389 | -0.020 | -7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.27 | -17.7 |
| 5 | PIT | 41 | +0.235 | +0.177 | +0.057 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.09 | +6.3 |
| 6 | LV | 54 | +0.006 | +0.072 | -0.066 | +0.3 | 3 / 0 | -7.0 | 5 | -4.8 | -0.13 | +10.1 |
| 7 | CLE | 35 | +0.194 | +0.181 | +0.013 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.15 | +5.0 |
| 8 | WAS | 30 | +0.116 | +0.120 | -0.004 | +3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.6 | +0.26 | +5.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 33 | +0.364 | +0.274 | +0.089 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.06 | +7.4 |
| 10 | PHI | 37 | -0.168 | -0.142 | -0.026 | -6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.03 | -4.5 |
| 12 | LAC | 18 | +0.427 | +0.431 | -0.003 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.3 |
| 13 | KC | 42 | -0.292 | -0.260 | -0.032 | -12.3 | 2 / 0 | -13.6 | 1 | -2.5 | -0.31 | -9.2 |
| 14 | DET | 26 | +0.204 | +0.342 | -0.139 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.10 | +4.5 |
| 15 | CIN | 24 | -0.466 | -0.446 | -0.020 | -11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.19 | -10.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.