Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Derek Carr — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.058
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.052
Dropbacks
722
Turnover EPA
-101.7
WPA
+2.97
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 57 | +0.158 | +0.165 | -0.007 | +9.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.80 | -3.4 |
| 2 | PIT | 39 | +0.595 | +0.529 | +0.066 | +23.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.67 | +9.8 |
| 3 | MIA | 46 | +0.206 | +0.144 | +0.062 | +9.5 | 1 / 0 | -11.7 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.75 | -1.8 |
| 4 | LAC | 38 | -0.213 | -0.199 | -0.014 | -8.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.10 | -2.4 |
| 5 | CHI | 39 | -0.232 | -0.238 | +0.006 | -9.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 3 | -2.5 | -0.18 | -6.8 |
| 6 | DEN | 29 | +0.590 | +0.569 | +0.021 | +17.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.37 | +9.7 |
| 7 | PHI | 34 | +0.530 | +0.539 | -0.010 | +18.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +17.8 |
| 9 | NYG | 47 | -0.167 | -0.156 | -0.011 | -7.8 | 2 / 1 | -14.7 | 1 | -4.2 | -0.22 | -3.2 |
| 10 | KC | 37 | -0.027 | -0.001 | -0.026 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.05 | +1.4 |
| 11 | CIN | 29 | -0.329 | -0.307 | -0.022 | -9.5 | 1 / 1 | -11.8 | 2 | -8.0 | +0.02 | +3.3 |
| 12 | DAL | 42 | +0.274 | +0.185 | +0.089 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.21 | -2.2 |
| 13 | WAS | 41 | -0.022 | -0.015 | -0.007 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.31 | +6.2 |
| 14 | KC | 49 | -0.090 | -0.061 | -0.028 | -4.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.5 | 4 | -8.7 | -0.08 | +5.2 |
| 15 | CLE | 39 | -0.019 | -0.026 | +0.007 | -0.7 | 1 / 1 | -8.3 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.25 | +2.3 |
| 16 | DEN | 27 | -0.190 | -0.193 | +0.003 | -5.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 2 | -7.2 | -0.21 | +5.3 |
| 17 | IND | 33 | +0.184 | +0.171 | +0.013 | +6.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.51 | +10.0 |
| 18 | LAC | 40 | -0.142 | -0.130 | -0.012 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.11 | -6.0 |
| 19 | CIN | 56 | -0.006 | +0.008 | -0.014 | -0.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.1 | 3 | -8.8 | -0.08 | -6.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.