Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jameis Winston — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.052
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.077
Dropbacks
326
Turnover EPA
-78.3
WPA
-0.38
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | WAS | 1 | +0.751 | +0.807 | -0.057 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +15.3 |
| 7 | CIN | 13 | +0.517 | +0.541 | -0.024 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.01 | -11.7 |
| 8 | BAL | 44 | +0.368 | +0.270 | +0.098 | +16.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.48 | +2.9 |
| 9 | LAC | 52 | -0.390 | -0.403 | +0.013 | -20.3 | 3 / 0 | -15.1 | 6 | -6.5 | -0.36 | -8.5 |
| 11 | NO | 50 | +0.226 | +0.190 | +0.037 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.23 | +1.1 |
| 12 | PIT | 30 | -0.008 | -0.025 | +0.018 | -0.2 | 1 / 1 | -7.4 | 1 | -4.6 | -0.11 | +2.5 |
| 13 | DEN | 62 | -0.024 | -0.038 | +0.014 | -1.5 | 3 / 0 | -26.7 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.03 | -3.3 |
| 14 | PIT | 44 | -0.218 | -0.228 | +0.010 | -9.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.34 | +0.4 |
| 15 | KC | 30 | -0.673 | -0.673 | -0.000 | -20.2 | 3 / 0 | -14.2 | 5 | -8.9 | -0.31 | -2.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.