Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Taylor Heinicke — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.046
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.010
Dropbacks
142
Turnover EPA
-14.7
WPA
-0.37
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | TEN | 22 | +0.230 | +0.275 | -0.045 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.00 | -1.0 |
| 9 | MIN | 38 | -0.049 | -0.034 | -0.015 | -1.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.20 | -7.1 |
| 10 | ARI | 18 | -0.508 | -0.418 | -0.089 | -9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.31 | -10.5 |
| 16 | IND | 33 | +0.228 | +0.233 | -0.006 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.27 | -0.5 |
| 17 | CHI | 31 | -0.262 | -0.204 | -0.058 | -8.1 | 3 / 0 | -8.8 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.14 | -26.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.