Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dak Prescott — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.119
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.123
Dropbacks
486
Turnover EPA
-82.9
WPA
+0.83
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 31 | -0.404 | -0.403 | -0.002 | -12.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.32 | -23.0 |
| 7 | DET | 27 | +0.268 | +0.359 | -0.090 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.4 | +0.11 | +10.0 |
| 8 | CHI | 28 | +0.480 | +0.526 | -0.045 | +13.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.26 | +10.9 |
| 10 | GB | 48 | -0.123 | -0.140 | +0.017 | -5.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.20 | -4.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 25 | +0.741 | +0.736 | +0.005 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | +15.8 |
| 12 | NYG | 30 | +0.391 | +0.388 | +0.002 | +11.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +13.3 |
| 13 | IND | 31 | +0.101 | +0.110 | -0.009 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.07 | -4.5 |
| 14 | HOU | 40 | -0.114 | -0.092 | -0.022 | -4.6 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.12 | -8.4 |
| 15 | JAX | 33 | +0.063 | +0.122 | -0.059 | +2.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.07 | +14.2 |
| 16 | PHI | 41 | +0.191 | +0.139 | +0.052 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -9.9 | 6 | -8.0 | +0.53 | +8.1 |
| 17 | TEN | 42 | +0.255 | +0.250 | +0.005 | +10.7 | 2 / 0 | -6.4 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.24 | +3.7 |
| 18 | WAS | 38 | -0.365 | -0.347 | -0.018 | -13.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.20 | -24.0 |
| 19 | TB | 34 | +0.728 | +0.702 | +0.026 | +24.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.33 | +13.4 |
| 20 | SF | 38 | -0.131 | -0.166 | +0.035 | -5.0 | 2 / 0 | -9.1 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.27 | -5.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.